Coffee might help many U.S. adults kick start their days, but it is also expected to have them cringing soon due to price increases. Yep, our morning cups will become yet another dose of stress.
Experts are warning about the potential price increase in the wake of an announcement from President Donald Trump’s administration regarding a 50% tariff hike on Brazil. This week, the administration also announced an investigation into Brazil’s trade policies.
According to USA Today, Brazil made up 35% of the 80% of unroasted coffee imports sent to the U.S. from Latin America in 2023. A June report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture said that world coffee production is expected to increase by 4.3 million in 2025 and 2026 to a record 178.7 million. It cited recovery from challenging weather conditions in Vietnam and Indonesia. Increased exports from those countries, as well as Ethiopia, are expected to offset predicted losses from Brazil and Colombia.
Trump’s Brazil tariff hike is expected to begin Aug. 1. Even before the announcement, J.M. Smucker (the maker of Folger’s coffee) announced its profit will fall short due to tariffs. CBS News Correspondent Michael Wallace reported that “Smucker buys 500 million pounds of green coffee per year, mostly from Vietnam, China and Brazil,” and that the company increased its coffee prices in June, October and May.
“Americans are going to feel the impact of the tariffs in their morning brew. That’s a very significant tax on the leading producer of coffee,” said food economist and Michigan State University professor David Ortega, per a USA Today’s report this week. He also said consumers would likely notice higher prices over the coming months.
Ron Kurnik, owner of Superior Coffee Roasting, a roastery in Sault Ste. Marie, Mich., was also cited by USA Today. He said that inventory is down, though demand remains high.
A pallet of imported green coffee beans that would have cost him roughly $6,000 a year ago runs closer to $9,000 today, Kurnik explained. To that, he has to add packaging costs due to tariffs on China, where the packaging materials come from.
“That’s translated to higher prices for his customers,” USA Today said. “As of June 1, a 12-ounce bag of Superior Coffee Roasting coffee costs $13.99, up from $11.99.”
Kurnik said those bags might get even more expensive after the Brazil tariff kicks in, since about one third of his company’s purchasing goes to coffee from Brazil.
A spring 2025 report from the National Coffee Association indicated that two thirds of Americans drink coffee every day. Despite rising prices in recent years, that means that coffee is still the most popular beverage in the nation and its popularity has risen 7% over the past five years.
MarketWatch reported this week that some coffee lovers have even started to hoard their beans as prices have risen.
“The best part of it is that when I open my pantry door, I get that delicious smell of coffee from the multiple cans,” said Lisa Wells, a New York City public relations consultant quoted by the outlet.
It also noted that coffee futures spiked after Trump’s Brazil tariff announcement. Retail prices have also increased recently, up 2.2% in June compared to May, higher than the overall increase in inflation last month. He doesn’t recommend hoarding beans, as he imagines they might get a little stale during the wait.
Shaun Michael Lewis, a former coffee-industry executive who now works in real estate, told MarketWatch that coffee prices might come down late next year or in early 2027. However, Audacy recently reported on research that may have unlocked a more efficient way to make coffee with fewer beans.