While homicide and most other violent crimes have dropped to or slightly below levels seen before the onset of the COVID pandemic -- criminals appear to have sticky fingers as shoplifting has skyrocketed.
Rates of shoplifting rose an average 24% during the first six months of 2024 compared to the same period last year, according to a new analysis of crime trends by the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ).
The report, which assesses changes between 2018 and June 2024, cautioned that it's unclear how much of the change may reflect an actual rise in incidents.
"More investigation is needed to untangle what's driving the trend and discern how much it may be due to a rise in actual shoplifting or a rise in the rates at which retailers are reporting incidents to law enforcement," the report noted.
In any event, the data shows the share of reported larcenies that involve shoplifting from commercial establishments has nearly doubled since the mid-1970s, from 11% to 21%.
"Retail theft, especially organized retail theft, has received extensive media coverage and has caught the attention of state and federal policymakers. Dozens of shoplifting and 'smash and grab' incidents in a variety of cities have been captured on video and have gone viral on social and mass media," CCJ said. "Major grocers, drugstores, and other retail outlets have cited shoplifting as their reason for closing multiple locations and placing goods behind counters and in locked cases."
After a notable decline in the first few months of the COVID-19 pandemic, shoplifting dropped 15% from 2019 to 2020 and declined another 10% in 2021, the report shows. Shoplifting increased 12% from 2022 to 2023, but by the end of 2023, the shoplifting rate was 10% lower than in 2019.
Now to this year, the shoplifting rate in the first half of 2024 was 10% higher than in 2019. February and March (+30%) and May (+37%) saw the largest shoplifting increases relative to the same months in 2023, according to the report. The shoplifting rate in the first half of 2024 was 10% higher than in the first half of 2019.
"Shoplifting, especially 'smash-and-grab' episodes caught on video, has reshaped the look and feel of retail outlets and prompted a wave of initiatives — some with multi-million dollar budgets — in multiple jurisdictions in the past year," CCJ said.
The report suggests that to achieve long-term reductions in crime, local, state and federal governments, along with communities and industries, must adopt research-based public safety strategies.
"Policymakers and community leaders can accelerate the momentum by doubling down on crime-prevention strategies that are backed by evidence and are delivering measurable results," CCJ President and CEO Adam Gelb said in a statement.