Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in an incredibly tight race for the White House, and the twists and turns keep coming. The latest? Harris’ apparent flip of a key swing state.
According to Quinnipiac University poll results released Wednesday, it looked like Michigan would go for Trump, 50% to Harris’ 47% as of Oct. 9. Now, that has switched – Harris had 49% in the latest poll, compared to Trump’s 46%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent candidate Cornel West each had 1%.
While 96% of Democrats in Michigan said they back Harris and 94% of Republicans said they back Trump, independents were nearly evenly split, with 46% backing Harris and 44% backing Trump.
“In a hypothetical two-way race, Harris receives 50% support and Trump receives 46% support,” said Quinnipiac.
Its poll found that women are much more likely to be pro-Harris at 57% to 37% for Trump. In the state, 56% of men plan to vote for Trump, compared to 40% who plan to vote for Harris.
As far as issues go, 52% of voters in Michigan prefer Trump’s take on immigration, compared to 45% who prefer Harris, while those numbers are flipped when voters were asked who would be better at preserving Democracy in the U.S. Harris also has an edge on the issue of abortion, at 56% compared to 37%. More people (49%) said they think Trump will be better at handling the situation on in the Middle East than Harris (47%), while 50% said Harris would be better at facing an unidentified crisis facing the nation, compared to 48% who said the same about Trump.
While a 51% majority said they believe Trump will handle the economy better than Harris (47%), expert analysis of Trump and Harris’ proposed economic policies indicates those voters might be misled. Audacy’s “The On Deadline Podcast” takes a closer look at those analyses this Friday.
When asked if they thought the candidates were honest, 46% of Michigan voters said they believe Harris is, compared to just 39% who believe Trump is. Harris also got a better score (49% compared to Trump’s 45%) on whether voters think she cares about the needs and problems of people like them. While Trump had a higher unfavorable rating (52%) compared to his favorable rating (46%), Harris had even favorability scores of 48%.
Quinnipiac’s results also seem to align with overall Michigan polling aggregates from FiveThirtyEight which shows Harris with a razor-thin lead of 47.7% compared to Trump’s 47%. The Hill’s Decision Desk HQ forecast said Harris had a 58% chance of winning Michigan as of Thursday evening, but it still labelled the race there as a toss-up.
Nationwide presidential predictions were also close this week. These predictions have also been shifting regularly throughout the unusual race, especially after President Joe Biden dropped out as the Democratic candidate this summer and was replaced by Harris.
As of Thursday, national polling results gathered by FiveThirtyEight showed Harris polling slightly higher than Trump at 48.1% to 46.3%. Even though The Hill’s Decision Desk HQ predicted Harris would win the race as of last week, by this Thursday it predicted Trump had a 52% chance of winning.
The Virtual Tout, a prediction model that tracks the Electoral College predicted a landslide for Harris that slipped in October and has continued to shift in Trump’s direction. However, those numbers have been shifting considerably – for instance Oct. 21 saw an 18-vote swing in favor of Republicans, followed by a 22-vote swing in favor of Democrats Wednesday. By that day, it predicted Trump would get 324 Electoral College votes to Harris’ 214. Betting market data from Kalshi favored Trump at 61% to Harris’ 39%.