Vice President Kamala Harris has a strong lead over former President Donald Trump with young voters age 35 and younger, according to a new poll. How much of an impact can we expect this advantage to have in the November election?
According to the CNN poll conducted from Sept. 19 through Sept. 22 by SSRS, the Democratic candidate has a 12-point lead over the Republican former president with young voters – Harris is at 52% to Trump’s 40%. That’s quite a bit shy of the 21-point lead sitting president Joe Biden had with the youth vote in 2020, per exit polling data.
During the 2020 presidential election, which saw Biden as the victor over then-President Trump, “younger voters had a broad, decisive impact,” per research released by the Berkeley Institute for Young Americans this June. Young voters also had a broad, decisive impact on Congressional elections in 2018 and 2022, according to that data.
Indeed, the League of Women Voters said this summer that “young voters are becoming a force in American politics,” noting that only 13% of people aged 18-29 voted in 2014, compared to 28% in 2018 and 23% in 2022.
Back in 2016, when former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but lost to Trump via the electoral college, her performance with young voters lagged behind other recent Democratic nominees, according to The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement.
During the primaries, young voters showed a “historic” level of support for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders – known for his progressive proposals – rather than Clinton.
“With the 2024 presidential election just months away, the institute’s analysis raises concerns about possibly low turnout among young voters in November,” said the Berkeley Institute at the time of its release in June. At that time, Biden had not yet dropped out of the race and Harris had not been selected as his replacement.
Before Biden dropped out of the race, Audacy reported on Trump making inroads with young voters as Biden struggled with the demographic. Economic difficulties related to inflation and high interest rates as well as the Israel-Hamas war were issues that the president struggled with as far as younger voters were concerned. May poll results from Quinnipiac University even found that Trump had a slight edge on Biden among voters age 18 to 29 at 48% to 47%.
Still, a Republican president hasn’t managed to secure the youth vote since President George H.W. Bush beat Michael Dukakis in 1988. A plurality of young voters who participated in the CNN poll said they identify as leaning Democrat (44%) compared to 33% who identify as leaning Republican and 23% who don’t lean towards either party.
CNN said that Harris’ 12-point lead “marks a return to more typical voting patterns after polls earlier in the year showed Biden struggling to rally youth support for a second term.” For both Biden and Harris, poll results regarding the presidential preference of young voters have varied widely.
“The latest CNN poll surveyed a larger sample of younger voters than is typical in most national polls in order to have greater confidence in the results among this critical voting bloc,” said the outlet. “It suggests a slightly wider margin for Harris among likely voters under 30 (55% Harris to 38% Trump with that group) than among those age 18 to 34.”
As the varied poll results from this year have suggested, CNN’s recent results indicate that young voters are more flexible than other voters. Nearly 20% of the younger voters surveyed said they’re less than fully set on a choice this election, compared to around 12% of voters age 35 and older.
Concerns about voter turnout brought up by the Berkeley Institute in June are still in play, based on the CNN poll results.
“Among young registered voters, only about half say that they’re extremely motivated to vote or that they feel it’s extremely important that they themselves vote, both numbers that are significantly lower than among older groups,” said CNN. Yet, it looks like it might be in line with past years.
This spring, a national poll released by the Institute of Politics (IOP) at Harvard Kennedy School indicated that more than half of 18-to-29-year-olds nationwide planned to vote in the fall. It said 53% reported they would “definitely be voting” in the election, very close to the 54% who said they would vote before the 2020 election.
Per the CNN poll results. Harris’ young voters are 10 points more enthusiastic about their candidate. They are also 11 points less likely to place extreme importance on their own vote.
While 57% of young voters called Trump’s presidency a failure, even more (67%) called Biden’s presidency a failure. This negative view of Biden’s presidency doesn’t seem to be dissuading them from plans to vote for Harris.
“Trump’s favorable rating among young registered voters stands at just 34%, while their views of Harris are, on balance, roughly neutral – 47% rate her favorably, and 45% unfavorably,” said CNN.
Younger voters also deviate a bit from all likely voters in their trust for Harris’ ability to handle the economy. A majority (43%) have more trust in Trump on this issue, but it is very close to the 42% who trust Harris more.
“Most still express optimism for the future of the U.S.: 58% say that America’s best days are ahead, compared with 42% who say the country’s best days are in the past,” said CNN.
As of Wednesday, polling results aggregated by FiveThirtyEight showed Harris in the lead at 48.3% compared to Trump’s 45.8%. Forecasting from The Hill’s Decision Desk HQ indicated that Harris had a 55% chance of winning the election and The Virtual Tout forecasting model predicted she would win 317 of the electoral college votes, surpassing the 270 needed to win.