After receiving offers for “buyouts” from the new presidential administration last week, an estimated 20,000 federal employees have accepted, according to a senior administration official.
That official reportedly told Axios that figure, per an article published Tuesday. According to the outlet, that accounts for 1% of the federal workforce. Since the offer is open through Thursday, the administration could get closer to its 5%-10% target.
President Donald Trump appointed billionaire Elon Musk – known as the CEO of Tesla, owner of X and more – to co-lead the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and to ostensibly cut federal staffing. However, Trump said this Monday that Musk’s moves require approval.
This weekend, Audacy covered reports that Charles Ezell, the acting head of the Office of Personnel Management, began sending memos to the entire government workforce offering federal employees the chance to quit with eight months pay once Trump was inaugurated. Audacy also reported in early January that all federal employees working in Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) were told they were out of jobs in a single day.
Axios noted that federal workforce’s normal attrition rate is about 6% a year. That means that some of the estimated 20,000 who have accepted the buyout so far may have been planning to leave regardless.
While moves to reduce the federal workforce are aimed at lowering government spending, an analysis from Elaine Kamarck of the Brookings Institution indicated that it might not work out well. She cited legal challenges, limited financial benefits and issues with optics.
“There is no guarantee that this offer is legal,” said Kamarck. New York Attorney General Letitia James also made this point in a press release.
“These supposed offers are not guaranteed,” James warned. “Federal employees should be cautious and follow the guidance of their unions to protect their rights.”
Kamarck explained that the federal government was first granted buyout authority during former President George H.W. Bush’s administration. Later, during former President Bill Clinton’s administration, he signed a bill permitting buyouts of up to $25,000.
“The law is still in effect and poses some interesting challenges,” Kamarck said. “For example, the average federal worker earns $106,462 annually, or about $8,871 per month. At that rate, the government would… exceed the $25,000 limit on buyouts in roughly three months,” five months short of the eight-month promise to workers.
Although she noted that the Trump administration attempted to circumvent this with an “administrative leave” designation, Kamarck said there is no legal difference between a buyout and administrative leave. She also said the plan’s potential impact on spending and the deficit won’t be very significant.
“If 10% of eligible workers took Trump’s offer, the government would save only $10.8 billion annually,” Kamarck said. At the same time, the Trump tax cuts are estimated to cost $400 billion per year and the federal deficit is projected to hit $1.9 trillion this year.
News of the buyouts have already been met with “heavy opposition,” from unions and others, Axios said.
“The number of civil servants hasn’t meaningfully changed since 1970, but there are more Americans than ever who rely on government services. Purging the federal government of dedicated career civil servants will have vast, unintended consequences that will cause chaos for the Americans who depend on a functioning federal government,” said a statement from American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) union president Everett Kelley.
Kamarck said that the cuts could backfire on Trump as time goes on.
“In reality, most civil servants simply implement the law,” she said. “When they don’t do their jobs well, Americans notice.”
As an example, Kamarck mentioned the 14,000 air traffic controllers employed by the federal government. With fewer controllers, there would be decreased options for flying, reduced safety, and angry citizens, she added.
Following a tragic, deadly mid-air collision in Washington D.C. last week, Trump made headlines for blaming the accident on diversity initiatives and previous leaders. Kamarck said that at some point people will just start blaming the president, as they have for issues during past administrations, such as the glitchy websites for Obamacare during former President Barack Obama’s administration.
“Pushing federal workers out of the government with no plan for how government services will function is a recipe for disaster,” she said.
The official who spoke to Axios said that the administration expected more employees to accept the buyouts. They also said the administration is trying to implement a hiring freeze.