For weeks, poll data indicated that Republicans were favored to gain control of the House of Representatives in the midterms, projections backed up by historical trends. However, by Saturday evening, the party's lead was slim at best.
Additionally, it appeared that Democrats could retain could retain control of the Senate, which some polls indicated would swing Republican.
Going into the elections Democrats held 220 seats, just two over the 218 needed to control the chamber, Republicans held 212 and there were three vacancies. As of 10:30 p.m. ET on the eve of the election, the GOP was expected to gain 16 seats in the House for a total of 228, according to CBS News’ battleground tracker, and Democrats would be left with 207. Check here for race updates.
Here are the seats gained by Republicans so far, per the Associated Press:
· Republican Cory Mills won the race for the race for Florida’s 7th Congressional District. Democrat Rep. Stephanie Murphy is the incumbent.
· Republican Rich McCormick won the election in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District. Democrat Rep. Lucy Bath is the incumbent.
· Republican Jen Kiggans won in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District. Democrat Rep. Elaine Luria is the incumbent.
· Republican Wesley Hunt won in Texas’ new 38th Congressional District.
· Republican Andy Ogles won in Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District. Democrat Rep. Jim Cooper is the incumbent.
· Republican Monica De La Cruz won in Texas’ 15th Congressional District. Democrat Rep. Vicente Gonzalez Jr., is the incumbent.
· Republican George Santos won in New York’s 3rd Congressional District. Democrat Rep. Tom Suozzi is the incumbent.
· Republican Derrick Van Orden won in Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District. Democrat Rep. Ronald James Kind is the incumbent.
· Republican Anthony D'Esposito won in New York's 4th Congressional District. Democrat Rep. Kathleen Rice is the incumbent.
· Republican Michael Lawler won in New York's 17th Congressional District, beating Democrat incumbent Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney. Lines for this district were recently re-drawn.
· Republican Marcus Molinaro won in New York's 19th Congressional District. Democrat Pat Ryan is the incumbent.
· Republican Zach Nunn won in Iowa's 3rd Congressional District, beating Democrat incumbent Rep. Cindy Axne.
· Republican Thomas Kean Jr. in New Jersey's 7th Congressional District, beating Democrat incumbent Rep. Tom Malinowski.
· Republican Ryan Zinke won in Montana's new 1st Congressional District.
· Republican Eli in Arizona's 2nd Congressional District, beating Democrat incumbent Rep. Tom O'Halleran.
Here are the seats gained by Democrats so far, per the AP:
· Democrat Jeff Jackson won the race to fill North Carolina’s new 14th Congressional District.
· Democrat Wiley Nickel won in North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District. Republican Rep. Ted Budd is the incumbent.
· Democrat Nikki Budzinski won in Illinois' 13th Congressional District. Republican Rep. Rodney Davis is the incumbent.
· Democrat Robert Garcia won in California's 42nd Congressional District. Republican Rep. Ken Calvert is the incumbent.
· Democrat Greg Landsman won in Ohio's 1st Congressional District, beating Republican incumbent Rep. Steve Chabot.
· Democrat Hillary Scholten won in Michigan's 3rd Congressional District. Republican Rep. Peter Meijer is the incumbent.
· Democrat Summer Lee won in Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District. Republican Rep. Fred Keller is the incumbent.
· Democrat Gabriel Vasquez won in New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District, beating Republican incumbent Rep. Yvette Herrell.
· Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez won in Washington's 3rd Congressional District. Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler is the incumbent.
As of Wednesday morning, Republicans were not showing as many gains in the House as some projected, and control of the chamber still appeared to be a toss up. By Saturday, the AP reported that the GOP had 211 (a gain of six) seats and Democrats had 203 (a loss of 7).
A gain of 16 seats, as was projected prior to the election, would be significant and effect legislation during the upcoming term. However, the University of California Santa Barbara American Presidency Project said that the president’s party on average has lost even more – 28 seats – during the 22 midterm elections between 1934 and 2018. Additionally, the president’s party usually loses four Senate seats.
“The incumbent president’s ability to launch new major policy initiatives would be greatly weakened under divided government,” said the American Presidency Project.
Out of 435 total House races, Ballotpedia said there are 37 battleground races in the following states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Alaska, Virginia and Washington.
Reuters identified 12 particularly notable races, including Alaska’s at large district. There, Democrat Mary Peltola ran against Republican former vice president nominee and state governor Sarah Palin as well as Republican businessman Nick Begich.
Another significant race was in Texas’ 34th Congressional District, where Republican Rep. Mayra Flores faced off against Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in a tight battle.
Republican control of the house would mean that U.S. Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) would become replace Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who was recently the target of a brutal home invasion. Though she was not home, the assailant – identified as 42-year-old David DePape – attacked her 82-year-old husband with a hammer. Paul Pelosi needed surgery for a skull fracture after the incident.
“Starting Day One, we will work to deliver an economy that’s strong, a nation that’s safe, a future that’s built on freedom, and a government that’s accountable,” said a Preamble from House Republicans regarding the party’s plans for control of the chamber. Per the document, the GOP believe Democrat control resulted in crippling inflation, rampant crime, ailing schools, border chaos, and disrespect for the U.S. internationally.
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