Why ‘Barbenheimer’ could be the end of the post-pandemic box office comeback

margot robbie at the barbie premiere and the cast of oppenheimer at the oppenheimer premiere
Photo credit Gareth Cattermole/Getty Images / Eamonn M. McCormack/Getty Images for Universal Pictures

The unlikely summer blockbuster pairing of Barbie and Oppenheimer made box office magic on opening weekend, smashing records and bringing in a combined $235.5 million. That makes it the biggest opening weekend since before the pandemic – and the biggest combined opening of all time for films that aren’t part of a franchise.

Meanwhile, the seventh Mission: Impossible and fifth Indiana Jones are doing less well than studios had hoped, with both films just barely surpassing their almost $300 million production budgets in their first few weeks.

Andry Draper, co-host of the Off Script Film Review podcast, told KNX In Depth’s Charles Feldman and Chris Sedens that the Barbenheimer phenomenon shows audiences are ready for something fresh.

“I think there was just so much excitement and groundswell for … new properties, new ideas, both wildly different movies by acclaimed directors, just letting artists be artists and bring audiences something new and exciting,” he said. “I think there’s a little bit of franchise fatigue.”

Draper said last weekend’s success was a “big improvement” for box office numbers, but revenue still hasn't returned to pre-pandemic levels. “It’s probably gonna take another year or two,” he said.

But that’s a year or two Hollywood may not have.

“The industry is now in a position to be able to move ahead and act on what we've seen from Barbie and Oppenheimer, except that the industry can't do that, because of the work shutdown,” said Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at Boxoffice Pro.

Unless the studios make moves to end the writers’ and actors’ strikes, there won’t be many new films coming down the pipeline for a while. The only production currently going on is for a few dozen independent films that have been granted waivers by SAG-AFTRA.

Some premieres are also being pushed back because their striking stars can't do any promotion. Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers, starring Zendaya, was recently pulled from the Venice Film Festival, with its September theatrical release pushed to next spring.

“The positive side, I think, is the back half of summer still has these movies to lean on and a few others as well,” Robbins said. “But we are looking further ahead towards the end of the year and especially 2024, where we will start to feel the impact of these strikes, the longer they go on, and that's going to be significant.”

If the strikes drag on into next year – a possibility SAG-AFTRA is already prepared for – Barbenheimer could be the last big opening weekend we see for a very long while.

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Featured Image Photo Credit: Gareth Cattermole/Getty Images / Eamonn M. McCormack/Getty Images for Universal Pictures