The scene outside the Wilkie D. Ferguson Jr. U.S. Courthouse in Miami was calmer than expected Tuesday afternoon. Miami police had prepared for up to 50,000 people to descend on the courthouse during former President Donald Trump’s arraignment, but only a few thousand showed up, most of them members of the media.
“For most people, it’s not really a story,” political analyst John Ellis told KNX In Depth. “I was at a Walmart yesterday, and no one was talking about it there.”
That isn’t to say that Trump’s support is waning — the charges against the former president have galvanized his base, and he remains 38 points ahead of all his challengers for the 2024 Republican nomination. For the majority of Republican voters, the historic indictment simply isn’t a story worth paying attention to.
“I think for most people it’s just more waves crashing over them, and they’ve gotten so used to Trump getting in trouble that it’s not really a big deal,” Ellis said.
Ellis predicts that this latest Trump scandal won’t be like Watergate, when Nixon’s most ardent supporters gradually jumped ship.
“When Nixon finally faced the music after the final tapes were made public, the Republican leadership in Congress went up and said, Mr. President, it’s time to resign,” he said. “No one in the Republican party is going to Trump, in any position of leadership. They’re either staying quiet or they're supporting him.”
Neama Rahmani, former federal prosecutor and president of West Coast Trial Lawyers, said the issue goes beyond Republican leadership.
“The reason I think that this country is so different from Watergate and Nixon is social media,” he said. “There are folks on the fringes that are getting their news from non-reputable sources, and they’re gonna believe that this is a conspiracy and the deep state and all the sort of nonsense that we hear spouted on those news sources.”
A recent focus group found that out of 50 Republican primary voters, only two said the indictment had a negative effect on their support from Trump. 19 said it made them support Trump even more.
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