Unless owner Dan Snyder quickly sells the Washington Commanders, don't look for massive coaching changes.
January is go time for the best coaches. Like, hours after season's end on Sunday. You don't think Sean Payton is already on several teams' list of top candidates? Indeed, a half dozen or more teams will flip staffs to leave no frontrunning prospects come spring when the Commanders' sale is more likely.
Remember March 1993 – the day the music died in Washington when Joe Gibbs retired as the Redskins coach? The team was forced to elevate defensive coordinator Richie Petitbon, who lasted one season before he was gone. The team had no other choices but to keep the current staff, which was certainly Gibbs' intent when resigning two months after the season.
Snyder's June 1999 purchase also was too late to hire his preferred head coach – Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Jim Haslett. Teams can block assistants from moving after June and the Steelers weren't doing Snyder any favors. Snyder would have fired Norv Turner after the season, but it was the best team of the owner's tenure so it took until late December 2000 to terminate Turner.
And what about Feb. 10, 2008 when signing Jim Zorn? Gibbs left for the second time two days after losing in the playoffs, but Snyder was caught unaware of the coach's obvious intent. Snyder and general manager Vinny Cerrato supposedly looked at "50 candidates" before being turned down by two top choices. Snyder was forced to promote Zorn, who was never previously a head coach and lasted two miserable seasons.
Translation – Commanders coach Ron Rivera is going nowhere. Oh, offensive coordinator Scott Turner and defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio and assistants are iffy to stay, but Snyder shouldn't dismiss an entire staff pending a sale that is anything but certain.
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Indeed, Snyder's leverage in forcing staff changes is weak given his own tenuous future. He could order Rivera to fire assistants, but maybe Rivera says no to force his own departure. Snyder would cave in any stare-down situation.
Rivera has done many positive things for this franchise, but the bottom line is the Commanders have collapsed late each of the last two years to miss the playoffs and likely have three straight seven-win seasons under him. Rivera has lost the fan base and there isn't any cushion to lose. Staying another year will just be a dead-man's walk just like Turner and Zorn's final seasons.
Yet, there appears no other path. The franchise's rut of the past 30 years seems destined to continue for one more.
Rick Snider has covered Washington sports since 1978. Follow him on Twitter: @Snide_Remarks.
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