Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - Just when you thought election season was over, the period after the election is suddenly becoming more interesting.
WBEN has learned that Congressman Brian Higgins (NY-26) will
serve as the new President and CEO of Shea's Buffalo Theatre following
his resignation from Congress. The move is said to be a "done deal",
with an announcement expected next week.
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It could result in a seismic shift in the local political landscape.
"You can certainly see a lot of positioning going on, among democrats
for who might replace him," said Jacob Neiheisel, associate professor in the
Department of Political Science at the University at Buffalo.
New York State Sen. Tim Kennedy is at the top of the list of interested democrats. Erie County Mark Poloncarz is another name that is being mentioned.
What are the optics for Poloncarz, who just won re-election to a fourth term
as County Executive?
"He seems to have left that option open for himself," said Neiheisel. "After his victory the other night, he said he would make that decision when the time came. In terms of the optics, I think people understand that politicians are strategic actors and are always looking forward to what that next step might be. They might not like it, but most people expect it."
Shawn Donahue, another political science professor at UB, said the timing of Higgins announcement is key.
Vacancies in the U.S. House of Representatives can only be filled by a special election. If Higgins were to resign, the governor would have ten days to call a special election which would be held about 70 to 80 days following the resignation.
"The interesting thing about that," Donahue said, "is that if Higgins had just decided not to run for re-election, we would go through the regular process where each party would have a primary and then a general election. By resigning, it would trigger a special election, meaning there are no primaries.
The democratic party committee would select the nominee.
Donahue said he is aware of four possible names to succeed Higgins.
"The top name is Sen. Tim Kennedy. Also, State Sen. Sean Ryan, Mark Poloncarz and Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown," he said.
Speaking of the Mayor, could his decision about his future lead to more dominoes falling?
Brown has been mentioned as possibly interested in succeeding Rep. Higgins, but also as President of Buffalo State University.
"Depending on the timing of when Brown would step down, because this is all speculation, the Common Council president would take over and then there would be a new election for Mayor next year," said Donahue. "If he makes the decision before the end of 2023, it would be Darius Pridgen stepping up as Mayor."
But Pridgen is leaving the Council at the end of the year.
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It's Donahue's understanding that Pridgen would fill the role of Mayor until a special election is held next year.
If Brown's departure is not announced until January or later, the new Common Council President, succeeding Pridgen, would take over as interim Mayor until a special election.
Stay tuned as we sort through a complicated political puzzle.