
Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - The political deck chairs in Western New York are about to see some shuffling following the upcoming resignation of Rep. Brian Higgins in Congress.
Rep. Higgins announced Sunday morning he is set to step away from New York's 26th Congressional district seat come the first week in February after an esteemed 19 years serving Western New York in the nation's capital.
Now the work begins locally for both Democratic and Republican leaders to prepare a run in 2024 to fill the void left by Higgins in Washington, D.C. for NY-26.
Erie County Democratic Party Chair Jeremy Zellner says with the Congressman not seeking re-election this upcoming year, the party will now get ready to conduct interviews and endorsements for anyone who may be interested in running for the seat in Congress.
"I don't know when, I wasn't planning on doing anything this year, but we'll be endorsing for the seat ahead of the petition process, which begins in February," said Zellner on Monday. "We're endorsing for the seat prior to any special election nominations that we would have anyway, so I assume whoever we endorse is also going to get our nomination. So it's a two-fold situation here: You've got the the endorsement for the campaign for next year, and then if there is a vacancy in February, there'll be a nomination by the Party Chair in Niagara County and myself to nominate a Democrat to go on that ballot."
Zellner says there is room for anyone from the public who wants to run to petition their way on the ballot and run in a primary and, potentially, run in a general election come next November.
Meanwhile, Republican strategist Carl Calabrese feels the first first order of business for them would be to begin talking to experienced elected officials who understand what it's like to go through a campaign, and make them "A-list" prospects for NY-26.
"Who that might be? It could be an existing Town Supervisor of a large town, it could be a County Legislator, or maybe a member of the State Legislature, if one exists in that district. So that'd be the first thing I would look at, if I was County Chairman, is trying to find that type of candidate," said Calabrese in an interview with WBEN.
Calabrese believes the Republicans should look to avoid what happened in the recent race for County Executive with a novice candidate - Chrissy Casilio - going up against a veteran and experienced candidate - Mark Poloncarz. The key would be to look towards more of a veteran candidate.
The second option Calabrese would examine is the potential to go with a candidate from the private sector who might have the personal financial ability to finance all or a good part of their campaign.
"That's certainly an issue for Republicans in a heavily Democrat district is to raise money. If you could find a dynamic business person, male or woman, who comes to the table with the ability to self-fund a campaign, that would certainly get my attention if I was a County Chairman," Calabrese said.
As of right now, Zellner is unsure whether or not New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is going to decide to declare a special election for NY-26. If that does happen, though, it means the Democrats and Republicans will have the opportunity to choose one person from their parties to go up against one another in an election for the remainder of Higgins' term.
From there, whoever wins the special election would likely have to run in the primaries against other candidates from their respective party for the same seat in Congress. Then following that, the winner of the primary would run again in the general election for the next two-year term starting in 2025.
It's a situation that could be very reminiscent of Chris Jacobs' path to Congress in 2020 when he replaced Chris Collins for the seat in NY-27, and needed to win three separate elections to do so.
During his run for Erie County Executive in 2023, Poloncarz said following his electoral victory it cost him $1 million to campaign for a fourth term in office against Casilio.
How much could it cost candidates on both sides of the isle for the potential three separate elections in the same year? Calabrese says it could be a very, very expensive price tag.
"It could be a Congressional campaign times two or three, if the situation works out that way. It's going to cost a lot of money, no question about it, and you better be able to raise if not $1 million, close to it," he said.
Zellner also agrees it will likely be a $1 million race, but admits he doesn't know how hard the Republicans are going to contest a district that is this difficult for them to win with a solid Democratic seat.
"I think we'll have a candidate who's going to be incredibly strong in the fall," Zellner said. "We delivered Erie County for Joe Biden last time, we grew our majority from where it was in 2016. We won Erie County for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and we grew that for Joe Biden. I anticipate us to grow that number in 2024 as well. Our committee is working incredibly hard, everyone is united, and we're committed to electing Joe Biden next year."
When it comes to the list of names potentially in the running for the Congressional seat in NY-26, the Democratic side features a bevy of candidates that could be ideal to land in Washington, D.C. to represent the region. Names like State Sen. Tim Kennedy, Poloncarz, and Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown are all considered strong candidates for Congress, according to Zellner.
Sen. Kennedy, I don't know that you can point to an elected state leader from our region who's delivered more than he has recently. I mean, there's historic infrastructure programs happening in our community that we've never seen before here. The County Executive just won a resounding countywide victory and did very well in the suburbs, and dragged across a lot of our Democrats. We had a very big night for him. And the mayor is a historic figure in himself. He's always working hard and won a historic election not too long ago, as well, he still polls very well. So it isn't going to be easy," Zellner said. "And then I've heard a lot of other names coming in, and as I've said, we're happy to interview anyone that's interested in our endorsement."
Zellner says Erie County accounts for 84% of the weighted vote of the district, while Niagara County is about 16%. It will be up to him and the Niagara County Democratic Party Chair to meet and sign a certificate of nomination for the special election, if there is one. Following that, they will meet with that candidate to talk about an endorsement for the seat for next year, one way or another.
As for the Republicans, two names that could have a significant shot to run for NY-26, in Calabrese's mind, is State Senate Minority Leader Rob Ortt and former State Sen. Ed Rath.
"They're experienced political folks, they've raised money, they've won campaigns, so they would certainly be a top my list. But I wouldn't rule out other elected officials that might represent large towns or County Legislative districts. There's lots of Republican County Legislators in Niagara County, so those would all the folks I'd want to talk to and get their feelings about, basically, how much fire in the belly they have to make this kind of run," Calabrese said. "It could be a very long, intense, emotionally-draining, financially-draining year for anybody."
While the likes of Mayor Brown and others have shown some potential interest in running for NY-26, there hasn't been any official list of candidates drawn up from either the Democrats or Republicans in the days since the news of Higgins' resignation first surfaced.
However, the anticipation is for both parties to get some names coming to the table and throwing their hats into the ring for serious consideration.
"This is a once in a lifetime opportunity, and I'm sure that some people are kicking the tires as we speak, and deciding whether they are interested in doing it. But it's one thing to kick the tires and decide for running for Town Supervisor or State Assembly. When you want to run for Congress, you've got to be prepared," Zellner said. "You've got to understand there's a lot of national issues that come into play there, you've got to raise different kinds of funds from individuals. You've got to have the your FEC filings, and you basically report to the Clerk of Congress on a lot of things as well. There's a lot of different rules when you run for that federal office."
Meanwhile, Calabrese will be interested what kind of candidates will express their interest for NY-26 once they've been asked by the media, especially when it comes to Republican candidates.
"That would be interesting to see if folks in the media, both electronic and print, would start exploring the possibility with Republican officeholders or potential candidates, and getting them on record as to, do they have no interest, do they have some interest or are they really serious about that? I haven't seen it yet. The media hasn't gone down that path yet, because this news is so new with the Higgins endorsement, and everybody's focusing on that seat from a Democratic standpoint," Calabrese said. "I'm sure one of these days the media's gonna start looking at the Republican side of the isle and exploring this with potential candidates."
WBEN reached out to the Erie County Republican Committee regarding this story, but did not receive a response.