Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - Now that we know that Rep. Brian Higgins is leaving Congress the first week of February, it's likely to trigger a series of political changes, in what's been, an otherwise, stable political landscape.
"Whoever is successful in getting this congressional seat, it means that their seat will open up and you're going to see a domino effect with members of the Buffalo Common Council, Erie County Legislature and State Legislature, seeking to move up, setting off a chain of events," said Republican strategist Carl Calabrese on WBEN.
The next political year may be reminiscent of 2020 when Chris Jacobs won a special election succeeding Rep. Chris Collins, who resigned before pleading guilty to federal insider trading charges.
"It's almost a repeat," said Calabrese. "The person who gets the nod, by the party chair, runs in the special. He could lose the primary in June and there could be a different candidate on the ballot in November. There are potentially three elections for the seat in the same year. "It's very confusing, there's no question about that," he noted.
As for possible frontrunners to succeed Higgins, Calabrese mentioned four names. State Sen. Tim Kennedy, Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown, Erie County Executive and State Sen. Sean Ryan.
But he noted that while Sen. Kennedy has a large warchest, The Buffalo News cites it at $2.1 million, there are very strict rules about warchests. "It could work against someone like Tim Kennedy. He's a money-raising machine in the business of politics. Very few people do it better than Tim Kennedy. But it cannot be used for a federal election."
Still, Calabrese said Kennedy could very likely go back to contributors and say, "I really thank you for what you've done for me, for the state, but I can't use it (for the federal race), can you donate again?"
"I have no doubt that if he is the chosen one, that he will be able to raise the necessary money," Calabrese said.
He added that Higgins' district, is a heavily democratic in enrollment, which is an advantage for whoever is chosen as the democratic nominee.
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