WBEN analysis: Redistricting do-over is 'a major political earthquake'

"In essence, we're starting all over again" - Albany insider Jack O'Donnell
New York congressional redistricting map
New York congressional redistricting map Photo credit NYS Independent Redistricting Commission

Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - The New York State Court of Appeals this week ordered the state to redraw its congressional map. The 4-3 ruling could likely hand Democrats a major win in the fight for control of the House of Representatives in the upcoming 2024 election.

Albany insider Jack O'Donnell of O'Donnell and Associates likened it to a major political earthquake after the state went through what he called "redistricting heck" in 2022.

"If you remember, there were lines drawn and lawsuits, courts and special masters and, in essence, we're starting all over again," said O'Donnell on WBEN Thursday.

He said he's not surprised given that there was a court fight last year over who got appointed to the Court of Appeals. But he said it remains to be seen how the Independent Redistricting Commission is able to operate.

"Part of the reason the state got into this mess," O'Donnell said, "is because they literally stopped meeting last year, after not being able to come to an agreement. They're saying that's not going to happen this time but
we'll see."

The Commission has a short window to draw a new map. It must be filed no later than Feb. 28, 2024.

The State Legislature can accept it or reject it.

Democrats control both houses of the legislature. There is a veto-proof majority in both chambers. They also control all statewide offices starting with the governor.

Republican strategist Carl Calabrese points out that state lawmakers have passed a law, that Gov. Kathy Hochul has yet to sign, that would move all local elections to even-numbered years. "That would put local elections in gubernatorial and presidential years, where Democrats get 20% to 25% greater turnout of their base vote."

Calabrese sees the redistricting push as a continual march toward putting the Republican party out of business in the state.

Republicans picked up four congressional seats in 2022 after a special master was appointed to redraw the lines.

Calabrese said, "Democrats have been salivating over those four seats and this week's court order is the first step in doing getting them back."

Republicans are likely to appeal the Court of Appeals decision. But Calabrese pointed out if Democrats succeed in changing the boundaries, Republicans could be in very tough shape.

Featured Image Photo Credit: NYS Independent Redistricting Commission