Have you tried to book a flight for the holidays? Thanksgiving, Christmas or bringing home a college student from out of town could lead to some sticker shock this holiday season.
Prices are very high right now for traveling over the holidays and it could get worse according to the experts.
Kyle Potter, executive editor of Thrifty Traveler, says if you waited to book you could be in trouble.
“It is starting to get ugly and that is why we've been saying for the last several weeks, probably going on about a month now, that the time to book your Thanksgiving tickets is now,” Potter says. “Unfortunately, now was about two weeks ago and so I think we're only likely to see flight prices for that Thanksgiving week continue to climb as the holiday gets closer and closer.”
Gas prices have surged again, but Potter says that is not the issue. It’s simply supply and demand.
“Everything hurts, but the biggest thing, as always with flight prices, is really as simple as supply and demand,” he told Vineeta Sawkar on the WCCO Morning News. “Airlines are kind of at their ceiling right now, flying about as much as they can. Travel demand is going to be as high as it has been in, you know, two and a half, almost three years come Thanksgiving.”
Potter says that week will be the busiest week of air travel we've seen since probably February of 2020, perhaps even Christmas of 2019.
“Airlines know that people need to travel during these times to get back to the family to celebrate the holiday, and they know that people are willing to pay more than they were this time a year ago,” Potter says. “Because this is going to be the first ‘normal holiday’ for travel anyway that we've seen in almost three years. That's a recipe for some high fares, and that's all adding up to what we're seeing, very high prices for Thanksgiving and Christmas.”
Using Google Flights and doing a few quick searches for Thanksgiving travel (Wednesday through Sunday), WCCO found flights to be significantly higher than normal (based on the average price to each destination over the last 12 months).
Phoenix- $551
Chicago- $468
New York- $668
Tampa Bay- $648
Los Angeles- $508
Washington D.C.- $512
Flights were slightly less on low-cost carriers like Sun Country or Spirit, but those prices tend to even out due to seat selection and baggage charges.
Post-holiday travel does tend to ease somewhat for those looking for a warm weather vacation spot in 2023. Potter says demand can only be so high before it starts to come back down.
“I think it is going to eventually start to eclipse what we saw prior to the pandemic because people really value travel and they didn't have it for, two plus years,” Potter tells WCCO. “That said, holidays are always ugly when it comes to flight prices. There is never a more expensive time to fly than that busy Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s. It is always bad. So I don't think we're going to see things get quite this bad as we get into 2023, and beyond.
One factor that could influence flight prices is an increase in business travel which has dropped off precipitously since the start of the pandemic.
“Travel demand is going to keep going up, especially as we start to see large corporations send their workers back out into the skies adding to what we're already seeing right now, which is a lot of everyday travelers hitting the road and taking vacations that they put off for the last two plus years,” explained Potter.
As for what to look for if you really want to find a deal, Potter says you should look for the usual hot spots for travelers because they can take on the increased demand. He says look to Phoenix, Las Vegas, Southern California and Florida.
“These are always very, very popular destinations for Minnesotans in the winter and the fact that not just Delta, but also Sun Country flies to these destinations several times a day is a recipe for competition that ultimately helps keep fares quite a bit cheaper than they might be to some other destinations across the country.”
There is also Hurricane Ian and the aftermath to contend with in the usual warm weather destinations like Fort Myers, Florida. Potter says it is too soon to know how that area will be affected come winter and spring for travelers.
“I think it's going to be a really open question how quickly those communities can bounce back and to what extent people who would otherwise be itching to get to those communities in Florida is going to put a damper on that. I don't think we know the answer to that quite yet. I think it's just a little bit too soon, especially if you're thinking about winter and spring break trips. It's going to take a while before we see how that travel demands that we usually see shake out for 2023.”
You can find more travel advice from Potter and others at ThriftyTraveler.com.
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