Believe it or not, there is under a week remaining in the 2022-23 NBA season, and the playoff picture for the Eastern Conference appears to be just about set. Although the Celtics were able to keep their chances at the East’s No. 1 seed alive with their 41-point win over the Bucks on Thursday, that’s still unlikely.
With the win, the Celtics took the season series over the Bucks 2-1, which gives them the tiebreaker if Boston and Milwaukee were to have the same record at the end of the season.
The problem is, the C’s still trail the Bucks by two games. Milwaukee only has four games remaining on the season, and three of the four teams they will see are .500 or worse.
With that said, it’s safe to assume that Boston will be the East’s No. 2 seed — the same spot they were in a season ago.
Assuming Boston does finish second, they will play the winner of the play-in game between the East’s seventh- and eighth-placed teams. As it stands, it will likely be the Miami Heat that finish in seventh, and they will most likely see either the Toronto Raptors or Atlanta Hawks. As of Sunday, the Raptors and Hawks are tied for eighth.
With three potential first-round opponents on the table for the Celtics, let’s take a look those teams:
Miami Heat
The Heat are the team the Celtics will most likely see in the first round this postseason. Boston and Miami have met in two of the last three Eastern Conference Finals, and although they still have much of the same key pieces from last year, including Erik Spoelstra, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, this is not the same Heat team.
Boston and Miami split their season series, with each team winning two games, with Miami winning the last two meetings.
Miami has struggled mightily offensively this season. They are last in the league in points per game, averaging just 109. For what it’s worth, the Celtics are second in the league in points per game with 118.4. Miami is not a good rebounding team either, as they sit at 28th in the league in rebounds per game. This is great news for the Celtics, who are 31-5 when they out-rebound their opponent.
The Heat do make up for their offensive struggles on the defensive end, though. Miami has held their opponents to an average of 109.9 points per game, which is second-fewest in the NBA. The Heat also force the third-most turnovers per game in the NBA, with opponents turning the ball over 15.7 times per game against them.
In Boston’s four games against Miami this season, they turned the ball over a total of 73 times, for an average of 18.3 per game. One of those meetings with the Heat included a 20-turnover showing on December 2, which is Boston’s worst mark of the season.
This is where the Heat could give the Celtics fits. Turnovers were the death of the Celtics last postseason. This year, they are 5-9 when they turn the ball over 16 times or more.
Atlanta Hawks
The Celtics are a perfect 2-0 against the Hawks this season, with one more matchup between the two remaining on April 9.
Opposite of Miami, the Hawks are a really bad defensive team. In their two games against the Hawks this season, the Celtics have scored 126 and 134 points, both in regulation. In those two games, Boston has shot an average of 54.6% from the field and 46.6% from three.
When the Hawks hired Quin Snyder to be the team’s new head coach, the hope was he would change things defensively for Atlanta, but that has not been the case. Since his hire, the Hawks have allowed an average of 118.1 points per game, which is fifth-most in the league.
Though the Hawks do have the ability to score, averaging 118.1 points per game — which is fourth-most in the NBA — their defense will be their downfall, especially if they see an offense like Boston.
Toronto Raptors
The Celtics are also a perfect 2-0 against Toronto this season. The Raptors have played the Celtics tight, though, with both games being decided by a total of eight points.
The Celtics and Raptors have two more meetings against each other remaining this season, and they could have a massive impact on how the play-in seeding shakes out.
Toronto is about as average as average can get. They are a middle of the pack team offensively and defensively. Toronto especially struggles from 3-point range, shooting just 33.6% from deep on the season, which is good for 28th in the NBA.
But, the Raptors do have some good size, which has given the Celtics some struggles this season. That said, they simply do not have enough to make any noise in the postseason.