6 Rings Postgame Show: Mike Kadlick and Christian Fauria join the show to discuss what to make of the Patriots benching Mac Jones
My fellow Patriots devotees:
Good morning, good afternoon, or good evening depending on when and where you are reading this.
As is tradition, welcome into my State of the Patriots Address: a yearly deep-dive into where Foxborough's football team sits at the bye week.
The New England Patriots are 2-8 through ten games, hold the second-worst point differential in football (-97), and if the season ended today, would hold the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
We’ve learned plenty about this club through ten games, maybe more than we would have liked, so let's use it to evaluate them both for the now and for the future (because let’s face it, their 2023 season is all but over).
So, without further ado, here's a look at where things stand with the Patriots at the bye week:
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AFC East Standings
1. Miami Dolphins (6-3)
2. Buffalo Bills (5-5)
3. New York Jets (4-5)
4. New England Patriots (2-8)
Despite holding the second-best in-division record at 2-2, the Patriots sit at the bottom of the AFC East barrel just like they did at last year's bye week.
New England has already played the Dolphins twice (losing both) and taken on both the Bills and Jets once (winning both). They'll face off Buffalo for a second time, in Buffalo, on January 1 and New York, in Foxborough, on January 8.
Already sitting 2.5 games behind the third-place Jets, the Patriots' path to an AFC East title is virtually non-existent with seven games to go.
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AFC Playoff Picture
1. Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)
2. Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3)
4. Miami Dolphins (6-3)
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5. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)
6. Cleveland Browns (6-3)
7. Houston Texans (5-4)
IN THE HUNT
8. Cincinnati Bengals (5-4)
9. Indianapolis Colts (5-5)
10. Buffalo Bills (5-5)
11. Las Vegas Raiders (5-5)
This is what the AFC Playoff Picture currently looks like. Notice something? The Patriots are nowhere to be found.
Not only are the Patriots in last place in the AFC East, they’re at the bottom of the entire AFC.
Yup, that's right. At 2-8, New England currently holds the worst record in the conference. 16th out of 16.
According to the New York Times’ playoff calculator, the Patriots have less than a 1% chance to qualify for the postseason, and their best chance at a miracle is running the table. Here’s who they have to play the rest of the way:
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Remaining Schedule
Week 12: @ Giants
Week 13: vs. Chargers
Week 14: @ Steelers
Week 15: vs. Chiefs
Week 16: @ Broncos
Week 17: @ Bills
Week 18: vs. Jets
The Patriots have the 12th easiest strength of schedule remaining according to Tankathon.com, with the combined record of their remaining opponents sitting at 32-33.
Depending on if you're on #TeamTank/embracing the suck or not, you likely still look at the rest of their 2023 campaign the same:
• Automatic losses vs. the Chiefs, Chargers, and Bills.
• Coin flips against the Giants, Steelers, Broncos, and Jets that, based on New England's previous 10 games, could truly go either way.
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2024 NFL Draft Order
No. 1: Chicago Bears (via Carolina)
No. 2: New York Giants
No. 3: New England Patriots
No. 4: Arizona Cardinals
No. 5: Chicago Bears
No. 6: Green Bay Packers
No. 7: Los Angeles Rams
No. 8: Tennessee Titans
No. 9: Denver Broncos
No. 10: Atlanta Falcons
Here’s where it gets fun. If the season ended today, the Patriots would own the third overall pick
This would put them in prime position to select one either QB Caleb Williams, QB Drake Maye, or WR Marvin Harrison Jr., who are widely considered the three premier players in the class.
The third overall pick would mean they’d also have the 35th pick giving them the opportunity to select two top-40 players from the upcoming class. This is where they’d be able to address their other need on offense.
The Patriots have a lot of holes, but they’re have a real opportunity to fill them in late April.
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The Quarterback Room
Just as it was a season ago, the Patriots’ quarterback room is once again the talk of Foxborough at the bye week and, after what happened this Sunday in Germany, it’s looking more and more like the Mac Jones era in New England has ended.
The Patriots' first-round pick in 2021 has now been benched three times this season, with none more impactful than the one on Sunday. Following a brutal red zone turnover, a phenomenon that has become 'The Mac Jones Special' in 2023, Bill Belichick and Co. decided to sit the starter down and replace him with Bailey Zappe.
Zappe wasn't much better, going 3/7 passing and throwing into triple coverage on his final attempt, a ball that was picked off and sealed the deal on the loss, New England's eighth of the season.
Heading into the bye week, with two weeks to prepare, it wouldn't be shocking at all to see Bill Belichick and Bill O'Brien turn to a new signal caller (whether it be Zappe or third-stringer Will Grier) before heading to New York to face the Giants on the 26th.
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SWOT Analysis
That’s right. The former communications specialist is bringing you a SWOT analysis of this current 2-8 Patriots team.
Here’s a look at their strength and weaknesses as a unit, the opportunities they can take advantage of moving forward, and some of the potential threats that stand in their way:
Strengths
• Christian Gonzalez: New England's most valuable player this season is a rookie defensive back who has played just three and a half NFL football games. The 17th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Christian Gonzalez came onto the scene red hot as New England's CB1, tallying 16 total tackles, one sack, one interception, and three passes defensed while defending the likes of A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Garrett Wilson. The performance won him September's Defensive Rookie of the Month award, but a torn shoulder labrum against Dallas in Week 4 put him out for the remainder of the season. Moving forward, he's the most important Patriot.
• NFL prominence: Outside of one truly promising rookie, New England doesn’t have any more real on-field strengths and all bets are off regarding who is or who isn’t on this team in 2024. Off the field, however, the Patriots are still a relevant franchise thanks to the 20 years of success they had under Tom Brady. This relevance is why they continue to be selected for primetime games and it’s why they were tasked with playing a game in Germany. Hopefully, it’s also why they don’t sit on their hands this offseason and instead make wholesale changes to the football operation.
Weaknesses
• Offensive line: Due to both injury and poor play, the Patriots have trotted out seven offensive line combinations in ten games, a recipe that has resulted in one of the worst overall units in football. Mac Jones has been sacked 21 times this season and the lack of continuity up front has been one of the (many) reasons why New England's offense hasn't come close to the offseason expectations. Offensive line is a position that should be among those at the top of the priority list.
• Wide receiver: Same goes with wide receiver. After letting Jakobi Meyer walk away in free agency, the Patriots tried to answer with the signing of JuJu Smith-Schuster, and boy, has it backfired. Through ten games, the former Steelers and Chiefs pass-catcher has 22 receptions for 149 yards and a touchdown and, despite playing 99% of New England's offensive snaps this past weekend in Germany, caught just one pass for nine yards. The rest of the room hasn't been any better and with Kendrick Bourne out for the season with a torn ACL, there isn't much of a light at the end of the tunnel. Though they have a promising rookie in Demario Douglas, a sixth-round pick out of Liberty, he's just that: a sixth-round pick out of Liberty. They need much more at the position.
• Coach Belichick: One of the two biggest strengths of this Patriots team for 20+ seasons is officially, accurately, a weakness. Does he still have it as an X’s and O’s guy? I suppose. But his clear lack of ability to evaluate, identify, garner, and get through to talent has only depleted as is the clear reason why New England's football franchise is where it's at in 2023.
Opportunities
• A high draft pick: As we outlined above, the Patriots have a direct line to a top-five pick if they continue to play the brand of football they have this season. Not only will they have the opportunity to bring in a top-tier player early on, but they'll also likely have another top-40 pick in round two. For a team that's severely lacking talent, an immediate pipeline is there.
• Enough time to play the youngins: With seven games to go in their season and no clear path to the postseason, the Patriots aren’t really playing for anything. The end result of the game no longer really matters, and therefore they can effectively use the rest of the campaign as a tryout for young players. Guys like S Marte Mapu, WR Kayshon Boutte, OL Sidy Sow, G Atonio Mafi, and DE Keion White should play plenty of football down the stretch so New England knows who they should (and shouldn't) be building around moving forward.
Threats
• Other bad teams: With scoreboard watching and NFL Draft order stalking in full effect after just ten weeks, there's a certain section of the Patriots fan base that's dying for the No. 1 overall pick. The tough part? It's easier to be bad, and the race to the bottom can be even more gut-wrenching than the race to the top.
• Robert Kraft: The only one who can stand in the way of the wholesale changes that the Patriots desperately need heading into next season is Robert Kraft. The owner of the franchise since 1994, he holds all of the power and when it's all said and done, there's always a chance he keeps things status quo due to the goodwill Bill Belichick has built up with his franchise. He's not going to do anything rash midseason, that part seems clear, but we'll have to wait and see if he sits on his hands moving forward.
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Conclusion
Unfortunately, New England's 2023 bye week feels like the end of the campaign, but there's something freeing about a team effectively bottoming out and starting anew. Whether you want the Patriots to win out or lose out is entirely your prerogative. My only advice? Don't stop watching. New England has done enough over the better part of this century for ownership to crave relevancy and deep down, they know change is necessary. It'll be exciting to see what's to come.
Make sure to follow Mike on Twitter @mikekadlick, and follow @WEEI for the latest up-to-date Patriots and Boston sports news!
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