1 – The muddy waters of uncertainty are swirling throughout New England with four games to be played in this disappointing and potentially franchise-altering season.
Depending on who you read, listen to or choose to trust, the decision may have already been made to move on from head coach Bill Belichick at the end of this season. Or, Belichick might still have a chance to be brought back for a 25th season with the Patriots despite three losing records in the last four years and currently holding the second-worst record in the entire NFL for 2023.
But the uncertainty for Belichick is short-term in nature. Sure we may not know whether the 71-year-old coach will be with the Patriots next year. Or the Chargers. Or retired.
What we do know is that his legacy is beyond question. He has six Super Bowl rings (as a head coach, which is what matters). He teamed with Tom Brady to guide the greatest dynasty in NFL history for two-decades. If he never wins another game he’ll go down as one of the handful of greatest coaches in football history. There will be red jackets. Gold jackets. Statues.
And more!
The uncertainty of Belichick’s final coaching days and future has ripple effects though, most notably for top Patriots defensive assistant Jerod Mayo.
Despite interest from other teams, including interviews for head coaching gigs, Mayo was brought back to New England last winter by Robert Kraft in a very much publicly elevated role. Kraft openly declared that the former All-Pro linebacker was indeed going to be a head coach in the NFL some day and that he hoped it would be with the Patriots. Many seemingly justifiably assumed that Mayo was the head-coach-in-waiting at Gillette Stadium.
Then came reports that Belichick was under contract through the 2024 season as he trudged through this terrible 2023 campaign. The losing piled up. The calls for a complete organizational overhaul and enema grew rather loud.
Now, with a month before all these decisions need to actually be made, Mayo’s future is dangling in the breeze. Could he be a top assistant on Belichick’s staff yet again next fall, continuing to oversee a defense with Steve Belichick that’s been the highlight of this season? Sure.
Could he be Belichick’s replacement, taking over a massive job with massive ramifications for all involved? Maybe. Could he be looking for a new employer if the Kraft Family truly does decide to tear things down and start over? Possible.
‘Tis the season in New England, the season of uncertainty and questionable job security. Certainly Belichick is at the center of it all. But Mayo’s future in New England -- which was once seen as oh-so bright and maybe still is -- is significantly more dubious these days.
2 – If Belichick’s not back in New England in 2024 and Mayo isn’t the man for the inside job, the next most popular name on the list of would-be Patriots head coach candidates has been another former linebacker – current Titans coach Mike Vrabel. Vrabel was in town this season when he was inducted into the Patriots Hall of Fame and reports at that time indicated that Kraft saw the former linebacker as a potential candidate to run his football team. With Vrabel under contract in Tennessee there’s been some speculation that a trade might be in order. But, according to The Athletic, that’s not going to happen. “The Patriots aren’t trading for Vrabel if they and Belichick part ways. Nothing has changed there.”
3 – While much of the focus is on who’ll coach the Patriots’ next year, it’s probably worth wondering just as much who’ll be running the team’s front office. Longtime Belichick pal and former Patriots staffer Michael Lombardi posed the possibility that his former boss could remain in New England while giving up control in the personnel department, currently and supposedly “collaboratively” led by Matt Groh. If the Patriots indeed “part ways” with Belichick it changes the entire power structure in New England.
Before the team can add a new coach, it would need to figure out who’s in control of the roster and personnel department. Maybe that could be Groh, although that feels unlikely at this point. Could it be a guy with ties to the team, like current 49ers assistant GM Adam Peters? Maybe it’s a name not even being pondered at this point. But if Belichick is gone, hiring the next head coach might not be the first critical decision the Kraft family needs to make.
4 – Coming off a game in which Bailey Zappe gave the New England offense a jolt with three touchdowns passes in the first half of the win Pittsburgh, the Patriots offense could get another boost Sunday against Kansas City with rookie wide receiver Demario Douglas set to return to action. Douglas exited concussion protocol and was removed from the injury list this week in advance of the battle with the Chiefs. The sixth-round pick had slid into the No. 1 receiver role prior to missing two games with the concussion, earning seven or more targets in each of the four games prior to the injury.
While that production came with Mac Jones under center, it will be interesting to see if Douglas can pick up where he left off while building a rapport with Zappe.
5 – One of the highlights of the win on Thursday Night Football in Pittsburgh was Ezekiel Elliott’s big night, that included 22 rushes, seven catches and playing 52 of New England’s 57 offensive snaps. With Rhamondre Stevenson still sidelined with an ankle injury, Elliott is likely to be the centerpiece of the Patriots’ offense once again Sunday afternoon against the Chiefs. But, there may also be room for practice squad elevation Kevin Harris to chip in. Harris was active but did not play against the Steelers. The last time the 2022 sixth-round pick saw game action came last Christmas Eve when he had one carry for 3 yards. While Elliott deserves to continue to get the chance to carry the load – and looked very capable and comfortable doing so in Pittsburgh – Harris should be ready to give his veteran teammate a breather if needed.
6 – History will be on full display Sunday afternoon at Gillette as the battle between Belichick and pal Andy Reid will match two of the greatest coaches in NFL history. In fact the duo enters this meeting with 556 combined regular season wins, most by two coaches by a longshot. According to the NFL, this matchup between Belichick (301 regular season wins) and Reid (255) tops the previous record set by Don Shula and Tom Landry, when they had 496 wins heading into a meeting between the Dolphins and Cowboys in 1987.
7 – Prediction Time!: Many wonder if there is some regret that this matchup between Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs and Zappe’s Patriots was the first game in history to be flexed out of the Monday Night Football. Kansas City has lost two in a row and was rather irrationally emotional after their recent loss to the Bills that included what had no reason to be a controversial offensive offsides penalty in the closing seconds. The Patriots showed some unexpected life, at least for one offensive half, in Pittsburgh. While this is by no means a classic Brady vs. Mahomes matchup, it might just be the most interesting Patriots game since the first month of the season. Maybe the Chiefs are ripe for the picking, having lost four of their last six. Or, maybe Mahomes, Reid and an offense that’s not living up to its own high standards have something to try to prove against a solid New England defense. Positive Patriots theory says Belichick will find a way to take away Travis Kelce and that will give New England a shot at the upset. And the New England defense deserves respect, especially given what it’s done without its best players in Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez. But this isn’t Mitchell Trubisky or Gardner Minshew they’re facing. This is a still-dangerous Mahomes. And the reality is that the New England offense has been shut out in three of four halves since Zappe took over. They also face a very talented Chiefs defense. The Chiefs feel dangerous in this spot as they fight for playoff positioning. The expectation here is that Kansas City controls the game and gets the two-score win to end its recent skid. All things considered, something in the range of a 27-13 win for Kansas City feels about right and things could get ugly if Zappe is loose with the football, which he’s wont to do at times.
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