This sentence will end with words that'd have been laughed at if they'd been said throughout a majority of the season: The Tigers are highly likely to be the SEC west representatives in the conference title game.
Let that sink in for a moment.
Not only does LSU have a chance to win its share of the conference for the first time since 2019, they can do so as early as Week 10 if things break a certain way. That, of course, is due to their 4-1 SEC record with wins/tiebreakers already over Alabama (4-2) and Ole Miss (4-1).
So how can LSU clinch its spot in Atlanta this December.
Let's start with the most likely/simplest route that could get LSU there this weekend:
- LSU (7-2, 5-1 SEC) defeats Arkansas (5-4, 2-3 SEC)
AND
- Alabama (7-2, 4-2 SEC) defeats Ole Miss (8-1, 4-1 SEC)
The updated SEC West standings would be:
- LSU: 8-2, 6-1 SEC
- Alabama: 8-2, 5-2 SEC
- Ole Miss: 8-2, 4-2 SEC
With just one SEC game remaining (Texas A&M) that'd mean even with a loss they'd have the edge over the teams directly behind with the head-to-head tiebreaker. Of course, LSU would still have incentive to go full-bore against A&M considering they'd still be in line for a CFP bid, but the ticket would be punched for the SEC Title game regardless.
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Things get a bit more complicated if this happens:
- LSU defeats Arkansas
AND
- Ole Miss defeats Alabama
The updated standings would be:
- LSU: 8-2, 6-1 SEC
- Ole Miss: 8-2, 5-1 SEC
- Alabama: 7-3, 4-3 SEC
The Tigers would still control their own destiny, but would have to hope for an Ole Miss loss to Arkansas to clinch prior to Week 12. LSU faces UAB in Week 11.
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The most painful scenario for Tigers fans would be:
- Arkansas defeats LSU
AND
- Ole Miss defeats Alabama
OR
- Alabama defeats Ole Miss
A loss to Arkansas would still leave LSU mostly in the driver's seat to win the SEC West should Alabama defeat Ole Miss. Each of LSU, Alabama and Ole Miss would have two losses in-conference and the Tigers could clinch with a victory over Texas A&M in Week 12.
The Tigers would need a bit of help if they lost to the Razorbacks and Ole Miss defeated Alabama, however. That'd leave the standings at:
- Ole Miss: 8-2, 5-1
- LSU: 7-3, 5-2
- Alabama: 7-3, 4-3
Alabama would effectively be eliminated, and LSU could still potentially win the SEC West, but they'd need help from one of Arkansas or Mississippi State and (most likely) a win over Texas A&M to do it. If Ole Miss won both, the Tigers would be out of luck.
Regardless, backing into the SEC Championship while losing a realistic shot at a CFP bid would likely be a disappointment for Tigers fans at this point.
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On the other side of the bracket, Georgia sits in a similar position, unbeaten and with a tiebreaker in hand over Tennessee. One more win from the Bulldogs would send them back to the SEC Title game as well. Should the Tigers and Bulldogs meet at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Dec. 3, it'd be a rematch of the 2019 title game. LSU won that year 37-10 en route to a perfect season and CFP title.
The No. 7 Tigers and Razorbacks kick of at 11 a.m. in Fayetteville.