The L.A. Rams have lifted the Lombardi Trophy and the Cincinnati Bengals walked off in disappointment, along with 31 other NFL teams. Let the 2022 offseason begin.
Nearly a third of the NFL's teams are debuting new head coaches next season, and that includes the Saints, who announced Dennis Allen would succeed Sean Payton last week. But many questions will remain, particularly on the offensive side of the ball.
With that in mind, here are my top five questions for the Saints to address heading into the 2022 offseason, starting with...
1. WHO IS THE OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR?
It’d be easy to flip No. 1 and No. 2 on this list, because they’re both vitally important questions to answer heading into the 2022 season. But I see the OC as the first domino, because whomever that is will – and should – have serious input into how the personnel decisions play out for the post-Sean Payton build of the Saints offense.
Jeff's take:
If the Saints wanted to try to run it back with a clone of Payton’s methods, they’d likely be looking to elevate an in-house candidate or to poach one of their ex-Joes (Lombardi or Brady) from their current teams. The most obvious candidate for that would’ve been longtime offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael, but that doesn't appear like it'll be the case. I’d guess the Saints will be looking for a splash hire that will be able to assert his own offensive identity under the defense-first Allen umbrella.
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To me, the top target should be Eric Bieniemy, a popular name in head coaching conversations who again was passed over for a top job. One of those interviews came with the Saints and lasted 8 hours, an unusually long interview by Saints standards. They clearly talked about ... a lot. Bieniemy has been successful as the Chiefs’ OC since 2018 with a Pat Mahomes-led offensive machine, but his contract is up. A return to his New Orleans roots could double as an opportunity to step out of Andy Reid’s offensive shadow. Much like the Payton-Carmichael dynamic, being the OC behind an offensive wizard makes it difficult to stand out. Leading the offense alongside a defensive head coach – and for a team that clearly likes to promote from within – could be a clear step forward on both sides.
But the ball might end up out of the Saints' court there, considering Bieniemy could always choose to re-up in KC or head elsewhere. The Saints have reportedly interviews Colts RBs coach Scottie Montgomery and Cowboys WRs coach Robert Prince. Whomever the pick ends up being, they'll have a lot of responsibility to set the tone of the post-Payton-era Saints offense.
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2. WHO IS THE QUARTERBACK?
As I said, you could definitely flip 1 and 2 under certain circumstances. What might those circumstances be? Well, if the quarterback is a big name acquired through trade (think Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson) you’d want to make sure the new OC and veteran QB are on the same wavelength. But with those options feeling like pipedreams, it’s far more likely that the next starting QB is brought in through free agency – or even the draft. If that’s the case, this becomes No. 2 on the agenda. But that doesn’t mean it’s any less important. The good news is whichever QB lines up under center in 2022, they’ll have the luxury of playing across from a top defense to make their lives easier.
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Jeff's take:
If I’m the Saints, I’m still kicking every tire I can find to establish an asking price for Aaron Rodgers. The Packers came out to publicly state they were committed to the 38-year-old as their QB of the future, despite spending a first-round pick on Jordan Love in 2020. But exactly what else are they supposed to say? A lukewarm statement would’ve guaranteed lowball offers across the board. And the fact is, if A-Rod’s disenchantment with his current digs rears its head like it did in the 2021 offseason, they’ll have to weigh all options.
Still, the ball won’t be in the Saints’ court, even if they put on the press. The Packers have indicated they wouldn’t want to trade their QB within the conference. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that even if they traded him, they'd take a lesser deal if it meant he was sent to an AFC team. But the Saints have a win-now defense, and they should be making every effort to ensure that group is complemented with a win-now quarterback. Opportunities to add first-ballot Hall of Famers don't come around often. If you can do it, you probably should.
All that said, it should be clear relatively early whether there’s a trade possibility on the table. If free agency is the route, I have no qualms about the Saints bringing back Jameis Winston. But if they do, I’d want it to be a longer-term commitment. It’d be a disservice to Jameis to continue the 1-year, incentive-laden deal route, even if his recovery from a significant knee injury raises some concern. He showed more than enough in his seven starts to see him as a viable, winning quarterback for this team. There’s no reason to overthink it, assuming the market doesn’t drive up the price to an unpalatable number.
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3. WHAT’S THE BUDGET?
National commentators will continue to push the narrative that the Saints are in "salary cap hell," and maybe they are to some extent, but they’re by no means trapped there. If salary cap hell is a place you can descend into, the Saints have done it with a pretty sturdy rope. That rope pulled them back from a $100M-plus deficit in the 2021 COVID-affected season, with only a few difficult roster cuts.
This time around it’s $79 million, and with a host of options to maneuver well under the cap without losing any key pieces. There are a handful of players who could be cut loose (think Bradley Roby: $9.5 million). But most of the gap will be made up with planned restructures, converted bonuses and/or extensions with backloaded commitments. For example, to answer a question that would probably be posed alongside the Aaron Rodgers rant above: That trade would likely only be made with some assurances they could work out an extension to ease the cap burden this season. Mickey Loomis and Co. plan for this and it won’t catch anybody by surprise. The question isn’t whether they can get below the cap, it’s by how much.
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Jeff's take:
While there will be a debate over the Saints’ handling of their cap, there’s no question that they do it well and wring every dollar out of the possible budget. But there is at least some truth to the idea that kicking the can down the road completely isn't the most viable way to build each offseason. The answer is somewhere in the middle.
The Saints don’t have qualms about maximizing their 3-year restructure cycles, but the more often you can get by without accepting a pile of dead cap, the easier it will be to avoid personnel decisions that are tinted by that number. Terron Armstead is the best example for this season. The veteran LT is heading for free agency, but he’ll count $13 million against the cap in 2022 whether he's back in New Orleans or not. From a practical standpoint, that has to become a part of the conversation. Wouldn't it make more sense to simply re-sign Terron and extend that commitment, even if there's some concern about durability entering his age 31 season, rather than simply burning $13 million? He could be the pick anyway, but the point stands that you don't want to be forced into personnel decisions out of necessity.
The goal should be to work back to a cap situation where restructures are a useful option to massage extra maneuverability into the equation, without being a necessity at all junctures. It doesn’t all have to happen this year, but it should be the long-term goal. We’ll still end up having a similar conversation every year, but it doesn’t always have to be this loud.
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4. WHO’S CATCHING THE BALL?
One thing everyone should be able to agree on heading into 2022: Watching a football team play offense without at least one star receiver is a painful thing. The frustrating part for the Saints is they have that guy on the roster in Michael Thomas, he just hasn’t been fully healthy for the better part of the last two seasons. The group of Marquez Callaway, Tre’Quan Smith, Deonte Harris and others had some nice moments, but too often it was clear they were being asked to fill roles they were overmatched in.
Smith is entering free agency and feels unlikely to be brought back, but there’s a lot to like with Callaway and Harris as depth options. The return abilities speak for themselves. Thomas appears on track to get back healthy and is reportedly in close communication with the team. If he can return to anywhere near the level he showed in 2019 that situation is already worlds different. But it still feels like there’s one key addition that needs to be made either in free agency or with a premium draft selection. Alvin Kamara’s legal issues are also an obvious factor, with a significant suspension likely regardless of his case’s outcome. Much like with Emmanuel Sanders in 2020, I’d expect an established name to be a target.
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Jeff's take:
There were two names I was very interested in seeing the Saints pursue if/when they became available. One was Giants WR Sterling Shepard (who is likely to be cut). The other was ex-Giants/Browns and current Rams receiver Odell Beckham Jr. Unfortunately the former is recovering from an Achilles’ injury and OBJ an ACL tear that came in the Super Bowl, making for a very rough timeline heading into next season. It feels unlikely that the Saints fill that WR void with another player facing serious availability questions to start next year.
But if I’m trying to fill that Z/slot role with a prototype, I’m looking at Juju Smith-Schuster. This will be a busy offseason in the WR market, with names like Davante Adams, Chris Godwin and Allen Robinson also hitting free agency. Those names will come with a big price tag, and a Smith-Schuster or even a Jamison Crowder could be overlooked and land right where the Saints want them.
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5. WHAT’S THE PLAN FOR MARCUS WILLIAMS?
Whenever you have the type of consistent, dominating defense the Saints have for the last several years, it’ll quickly get expensive to keep that group intact. The Saints have managed to do that despite the aforementioned cap hurdles, with the exception of Trey Hendrickson, who got handed a massive deal by the Bengals prior to last season, and Janoris Jenkins, who signed with the Titans. The Saints extended CB Marshon Lattimore and used the franchise tag on safety Marcus Williams. The Saints could tag the safety again, an option that gets progressively more expensive each time, but it feels like this is the offseason you either ink a new contract or let him walk.
The Saints have a handful of other key decision to make with impending free agents as well. The decision with Williams could be a factor in how those are approached. Here’s a quick list of some of the other top names:
- QB, Jameis Winston
- LT, Terron Armstead
- RB/WR, Ty Montgomery
- WR, Tre’Quan Smith
- DB, PJ Williams
- LB, Kwon Alexander
- DT, Shy Tuttle
- DE, Carl Granderson
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My take:
Dennis Allen is a defensive head coach, and I’d bet good money he’s not keen on letting Marcus walk if he can avoid it. Oddly, I think if the Saints choose to retain their free safety either with a new deal or another franchise tag, it probably improves the odds that Armstead gets a new deal of his own. If you continue to pay a premium at the safety position, it becomes prohibitive to accept a $13 million cap hit (as detailed above) for a left tackle who isn’t in the building. Why? Because if you let Armstead walk, you're ensuring you have to pay his replacement, too.
If the choice is between letting both walk and signing both, I know where I’m leaning. That's even more likely if Terron is willing to take a team-friendly deal, which feels possible.
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LAGNIAPPE: I know I went on a long spiel about the offensive coordinator spot and have yet to mention the defensive coordinator job that's also on the table, but I did that for a good reason: I don't see it as a top-five question to answer. It's somewhere on the list, of course, but with Dennis Allen already indicating he'll be calling the defensive plays, it falls down my list. While still important, it's now in the realm of where the OC position stood while Payton led the show. Allen is already well into the process of remaking his coaching staff, and the dominoes will keep falling. But I'd still feel confident in a name we know, such as DB coach Kris Richard or assistant head coach Ryan Neilsen, getting elevated into that position. ... Alvin Kamara's legal situation could make for some confusing roster situations as well, should he land a significant suspension or something worse. It's still too early, though, to know what those questions might be. Until there's clarity on what type of discipline/consequences Kamara is likely to face, it's too deep a rabbit hole to go down. That said, the Saints would probably be in a situation where it'd make sense to add a running back in the draft somewhere, considering that room currently consists of Kamara, 32-year-old Mark Ingram and UDFA Tony Jones Jr.