NEW YORK (BLOOMBERG) -- Bidders for three New York City-area casino licenses are projecting revenue that would place them among the most lucrative resorts in the world, according to an analysis of their proposals.
In Manhattan, the Freedom Plaza project is expected to generate $2.2 billion in annual revenue in its first year of operation, rising to $4.2 billion by year 10, while billionaire Steve Cohen’s project near Citi Field in Queens is forecast to produce $3.9 billion annually by year three, according to executive summaries the bidders filed with the New York State Gaming Facility Location Board.
Those sums rival some of the world’s top casino performers. Las Vegas Sands Corp.’s Marina Bay Sands resort in Singapore generated $4.2 billion in total revenue last year. Wynn Resorts Ltd.’s two Las Vegas casinos, the Wynn and Encore, produced a combined $2.57 billion in revenue in 2024.
The Coney, a resort proposed for Coney Island, is the only project that shared specific revenue estimates by source and year. Its backers, including real estate investor Joe Sitt, project $669 million in table-game revenue and $754 million in slot-machine revenue in its first year of operation. By comparison, Wynn’s two Las Vegas casinos generated $611 million from table games and $446 million from slots last year.
Eight bidders submitted proposals on June 27. Their bids still need approval from groups of state and local officials, and will be submitted to the state location board if they pass muster. The board plans to pick the winners by Dec. 1.
The projects would bring the first full-fledged casinos to America’s most-populous city. The bidders are a mix of billionaires, property owners and established casino operators. Three of the proposals are for Manhattan, with the rest in a suburb or outer borough. Revenue estimates are just projections, and the numbers may change as the bidders update their offers later in the process.
Caesars Entertainment Inc. has proposed a casino in Times Square that it said would generate $23.3 billion in gambling revenue alone over 10 years. A spokesperson for the project called it an opportunity to generate “historic tax revenue” for the city. “We see all of Times Square becoming the resort, with local restaurants, hotels and Broadway theaters all directly benefiting," the spokesperson said.
The Avenir, from developer Larry Silverstein, projects $2.5 billion in gambling revenue in its first full year. “Locating a destination casino in Manhattan will generate the most revenue for the state, according to New York’s own independent study,” the Avenir executive summary said. “It is not in the economic interest of Manhattan to force its tourists to travel to other boroughs to enjoy gaming and its amenities.”
A study by consultants Spectrum Gaming Group projected nearly $2.1 billion in gambling revenue for a hypothetical Manhattan-based casino, with ones in the outskirts generating far less.
MGM Resorts International, which operates a slot-machine-only facility in Yonkers, and Genting Group’s Resorts World, which has a similar property next to the Aqueduct racetrack in Queens, said their gambling revenue would more than double if they’re allowed to add table games like blackjack and sports betting. MGM projected casino revenue of as much as $1.39 billion annually, while Resorts World said its casino revenue would jump to $2.2 billion a year by 2027.
Projections from eager developers can sometimes get ahead of reality. The first four casinos to open in upstate New York fell short of initial projections, as did a temporary casino Bally’s Corp. opened in Chicago in 2023, ahead of a bigger resort it’s building there.
Bally’s, which is proposing a casino at a company-owned golf course in the Bronx, is projecting $1 billion a year in gambling revenue when it opens. It said the resort would generate $200 million annually in gaming-related taxes.
As part of the New York bidding process, candidates will suggest their own tax rates for their casino revenue, a process designed to maximize the state’s take. That last step hasn’t happened yet.
Two of the New York bidders said they were using the minimum 10% tax rate on table games and 25% rate on slot machines required by the state to estimate their proposed tax contributions. Others didn’t specify tax rates.
--With assistance from Patrick Clark, Nacha Cattan, Natalie Wong and Laura Nahmias.