Grocery shopping in the U.S. has an unsettling déjà vu feeling lately, with prices increasing at a rate that consumers haven’t seen in years.
“The last three months is running at an annualized rate of 7% inflation,” financial analyst Stephen Kates of Bankrate told Tommy Tucker at Audacy station WWL in New Orleans this week. That means, that if things continue at the same pace, annual inflation would be up 7%.
He said that past two months have had the fastest rate of inflation since June 2022, during the initial months of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. At the time, the supply chain was still on shaky footing in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Bureau of labor Statistics data released Tuesday showed that the food index increased by 3.2% the 12-month period ending April. Food at home increased by 2.9% and food away from home increased by 3.6%.
Per the Associated Press, that 2.9% increase is the highest year-over-year inflation rate increase for the category since August 2023.
Food prices increased 0.5% month over month in April, with a 0.7% increase of the index or food at home and an 0.2% increase for the index of food way from home. That means that, in addition to rising prices at the gas pump, Americans are also spending more on groceries. Some items have increased more than others. For example, uncooked ground beef prices are up nearly 15% compared to last year.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. had joined Israel to strike Iran in late February, a move that has resulted in a blockage of the Strait of Hormuz off the Iranian coast. Attempts to end the conflict have dragged on.
Since the Strait of Hormuz is an important trade route for much of the world’s oil, the war and subsequent blockade came with an increase in oil prices. When oil prices go higher, gas prices get higher, food transportation costs get higher and, eventually, those costs impact grocery store prices too. In addition to oil, much of the world’s fertilizer also flows through the Strait of Hormuz and that can impact prices as well, the AP said.
“U.S. trade policies and extreme weather also have weighed on U.S. food prices in the last year,” said the outlet. “In July 2025, the Trump administration imposed a 17% duty on fresh tomatoes imported from Mexico; consumer prices rose 40% in the 12 months before April.”
Those high beef prices were impacted by dry weather in the Western U.S., the AP said. Coffee prices were up 18.5%, primarily due to a drought and other weather conditions.
Though buying food at the grocery store is a staple routine for many Americans, Trump has seemed confused about the concept of grocery shopping, as noted in this clip. He’s also called people “fools” for worrying about increasing oil prices. As of this week, AAA data showed that average national gas prices were up more than $1 per gallon compared to last year, and they have remained over $4 per gallon since late March.
“Food prices and broader inflation are likely to feature prominently in November’s midterm elections,” said the AP. “During his 2024 campaign, President Donald Trump often cited the prices of bacon, cereal, crackers and other groceries as reasons why voters should return him to the White House.”
As prices go up, wages have not kept up, Kates from Bankrate confirmed in his interview with Audacy.
“Actually, the increase in inflation has now clawed back, in real terms, most of the wage gains that we’ve made over the last couple of years,” he told WWL’s Tucker. “So, on average, the American people have essentially not made any progress in clawing back earning power since all of this since the pre-pandemic period.”
Kates said increased prices for gas and groceries hit consumers regularly, possibly every week as they travel to work and buy food for their families.
“We will eventually see the rate of inflation, the rate change, start to cool down, but the price level, the actual prices you're paying for a can of beans, a gallon of gas… you know, some of those things, that is going to wear on people,” Kates added.
He said that prices for food and other goods might not come down as fast as gas with a potential end to the conflict with Iran. Increased prices come at a time when people are already taking out loans to order takeout.
“I wish had a silver bullet for you, but I don’t,” he told Tucker. “I mean, this is just a very – this is a frustrating and tiring situation that, you know, we make one step forward and two steps back.”
