NEW YORK (AP) -- Health experts are projecting the coronavirus toll in the U.S. will wane dramatically by the end of July, according to research released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Wednesday.
But the experts also warn a “substantial increase” in hospitalizations and deaths is possible if unvaccinated people don’t follow basic public health guidelines, such as wearing a mask and social distancing.
The CDC paper included projections from six different research groups.
The six models showed that with “high vaccination coverage” and adherence to COVID-19 guidelines like mask-wearing, “hospitalizations and deaths will likely remain low nationally, with a sharp decline in cases projected by July 2021.”
CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky notes the variants of the coronavirus are a “wild card” that could set back progress.
More than 56% of the nation’s adults, or close to 146 million people, have received at one dose of vaccine, and almost 41% are fully vaccinated, according to the CDC.
The CDC is currently reporting an average of about 350,000 new cases each week, 35,000 hospitalizations and more than 4,000 deaths.
The U.S. death toll stands at more than 578,000. A closely watched projection from the University of Washington shows the curve largely flattening out in the coming months, with the toll reaching about 599,000 by Aug. 1.
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