NEW YORK (1010 WINS) — A new poll from Siena College released on Tuesday puts Vice President Kamala Harris at a 19-point lead over former President Donald Trump in New York two weeks before Election Day, while closer races rage on for seats in the House of Representatives.
The Democratic nominee leads Trump 58-39% among likely voters in the Empire State, building on her 55-42% lead last month.
“Harris has widened her lead over Trump in New York, leading by 19 points in a head-to-head matchup, up from 13 points last month, and by 17 points in a multi-candidate race, up from 12 points,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said.
Harris’ landslide lead over Trump is strong in New York City, 74-22%, where nearly half of the state population resides. But the numbers are closer in the more politically diverse suburbs and upstate regions, with Harris is ahead by only a few points.
When offered the options of Harris, Trump or abstention, Harris only led Trump by 5 points in the suburbs (52-47%) and 3 points upstate (49-46%). With a 4.1-point margin of error for the poll, Trump could pull ahead in some areas.
Greenberg noted that the gender gap in New York is also widening, with men supporting Trump 11 points over Harris (54-43%), but women overwhelming support Harris at 71-25%.
The gender divide can also be reflected in the state ballot’s Proposition 1, the proposed “Equal Rights Amendment,” a Constitutional amendment that would ban discrimination based on national origin, age, disability, sexual orientation, gender identity or expression, pregnancy, pregnancy outcomes or “reproductive healthcare and autonomy.”
Proposition 1’s protection of abortion rights has energized the left and women across the aisle, with more than three-quarters of women supporting the amendment in the state. However, conservative concerns over transgender athletes participating in girls’ and women’s sports—a point of particular contention in Long Island’s Nassau County—has led Republicans to oppose the amendment by a 50-36% margin.
Fifteen-year Democratic incumbent Sen. Kristen Gillibrand is expected to easily clinch the Senate seat against Republican challenger Mike Sapraicone, the poll shows, with the senator maintaining a 26-point lead.
Despite clear Democratic leads in these areas, the more conservative New York City suburbs are the site of several closely contested congressional races, as the national fight for the House majority rages on. Republicans currently hold a narrow eight-seat advantage that Democrats are hoping to overtake with several swing races across the country.
According to two new Newsday/Siena College polls, Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito is trailing behind Democrat Laura Gillen by 12 points in the fight for New York’s 4th Congressional District, representing central and southern Nassau County.
In an even closer matchup, fellow Republican Rep. Nick LaLota leads Democrat John Avlon by 3 points in the race for the 1st Cognressional District, covering most of Suffolk County.