Though Super Bowl LV is still visible in the rearview mirror, the NFL is committed to a year-round business model, which means that the start of the free agency signing period is coming up around the bend.
In 30 days, general manager Joe Douglas will find a crucial opportunity to put his stamp on the Jets. Armed with approximately $68 million in salary cap space – a total that could rise to over $80 million, per overthecap.com, if he simply makes the easy cuts – Douglas should be able to take advantage of a financial crunch created by the COVID-19 pandemic that has put nearly half the league under water.
Still, I don’t expect Douglas to open the money spigot haphazardly, for several reasons. First, that’s not how he was raised. His executive education came under the direction of Baltimore’s Ozzie Newsome, who understood that the free agent market was usually fool’s gold. Teams just don’t let their most prized assets walk. Many are already starting to restructure contracts to create more room by converting salaries to bonuses, which are then prorated to hit their caps in future seasons when league revenues could swing back up. As much as I wish for the Jets to snare Chicago standout wide receiver Allen Robinson II, it would be malpractice for the Bears to pass on using their franchise tag on him.
Coming off a miserable 2-14 campaign with the quarterback position in flux, luring highly touted players would require the Jets to heavily outbid other suitors who can promote a winning environment. Given that Gang Green is way more than one star away from contention anyway, I’d be shocked if Douglas made any free agent that kind of Godfather offer.
However, that leaves Douglas free to clean up in the midrange of the marketplace, where the cap squeeze will send more above-average players than in normal offseasons. I won’t attempt to depict the costs for such talent as reasonable – the Jets will surely have to overpay – but it’s important for Douglas to scoop up a handful of these players nonetheless. Here are a few who I believe are some early possibilities:
WR Curtis Samuel
Jamison Crowder has been one of very few bright spots in a hideous Jets offense the past two seasons. Using his quickness and savvy route-running, he led the team in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns this past season, despite playing just 12 games.
Still, swapping out Crowder’s approximately $11.4 million 2021 cap hit (of which only $1 million would be allocated to the dead money pool) for what it should take to sign Samuel should be a no-brainer for Douglas. Samuel is simply faster and more versatile, with 200 yards rushing added to his 851 yards receiving with Carolina last season. While Crowder did toss a touchdown pass, he ran just one Jet sweep all season.
Samuel would be an ideal weapon in new offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur’s system that prioritizes the use of speed to make plays in space. Ideally, the Jets would also sign a true WR1 like Robinson, Tampa Bay’s Chris Godwin, or Detroit’s Kenny Golladay alongside Samuel. Unfortunately, even if they were made available, I just don’t see Douglas going in on the expected $20-plus million average value price tags. Maybe the Jets will bring back Perriman on the cheap or try to entice someone like Las Vegas’ Nelson Agholor to take a bargain deal. The worst thing they could do would be to wreck their cap by paying another secondary talent twice what they would have needed to retain Robby Anderson before he bolted for Carolina last offseason.
CB Jason Verrett
Douglas bags a San Francisco cornerback for his new head coach Robert Saleh, the former 49ers defensive coordinator – but not the big name of Richard Sherman, who will likely command a deal in the $15 million per year range. Instead, Douglas might be able to get Verrett, who allowed 0.82 yards per coverage snap – the 11th-best mark among the 114 cornerbacks with at least 200 coverage snaps, per ProFootballFocus.com – for around half that commitment.
Sherman, of course, was even more efficient in his lockdowns, but he played only five games last season and is three years older than Verrett, who has a lengthy history of his own but suited up for 13 of the 49ers final 14 games after suffering a hamstring injury in training camp.
The San Francisco connection will provide an added benefit to the Jets, in that Verrett can help an otherwise inexperienced secondary adjust to the Cover-3 base defense Saleh and his staff are expected to install for next season.
EDGE Carl Lawson
Again, Lawson is not the sexiest name on the market (Tampa Bay’s edge rusher, Shaq Barrett, would be), but Lawson is the more attainable target.
Lawson is not too shabby either, with an 8.5 pass rush percentage, which was tied for ninth among the 124 edge rushers with at least 100 pass rushes last season per PFF. For comparison purposes, the Jets’ leader at the position was pending free agent Jordan Jenkins, who got in on 6.3 percent of his rushes. While Lawson’s 5.5 sacks last season won’t wow you, profootballreference.com credited him with 32 QB hits, second most in the NFL behind Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt.
At 6-foot-2 and 265 pounds, Lawson has been used in the past as a 4-3 end – but even last season in Cincinnati’s 3-4, he was called upon to cover only 16 times in 723 snaps, per PFF.
The Jets will have to spend a little more here, maybe even up to $15 million per year, but it’s a premium position and he’s the right age (26 in June). If he can keep getting to the quarterback, it will be worth it.
Cap space can dissolve rather quickly if you use it imprudently, like when prior GM Mike Maccagnan doled out huge sums to running back Le’Veon Bell and linebacker C.J. Mosley in the 2019 offseason. If Douglas focuses on the above types of players, he will set the Jets up nicely for future years.
For a FAN’s perspective of the Nets, Devils and Jets, follow Steve on Twitter @SteveLichtenst1.
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