Over the summer, I posted an article touting 2021 as one of the stronger free-agent running back classes in recent memory. Forget I said that. Disregard. Shred the receipts. What I said was true at the time, though obviously not for long with Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara and Joe Mixon each signing lucrative extensions with their respective teams.
That leaves us with … well not a whole lot. You’ll recognize a few faces—former NFL Offensive Player of the Year Todd Gurley (whose precipitous decline continued in 2020), one-time Pro Bowl honoree James Conner, two-time 1,000-yard rusher Leonard Fournette and Super Bowl LI hero James White, to name a handful—though it’s not the group of heavy hitters we were promised … with one notable exception. If there’s a game-changer in the bunch, it’s ex-Packers star Aaron Jones, a first-time Pro Bowler this year and the NFL’s leading touchdown scorer with 19 combined tallies (16 rushing, three receiving) in 2019.
An unheralded UTEP product who began his Packers tenure in a muddled timeshare with Jamaal Williams (drafted a round before him in 2017) and Ty Montgomery, Jones quickly rose to the top of Green Bay’s backfield food chain, establishing himself as one of the most productive ball-carriers in all of football, as his career 5.2 yards-per-carry average would attest. Sturdy (5’9”/208) with great vision and a nose for the end zone, the ultra-efficient, chunk-play artist is a big reason why the Packers have reached the conference championship each of the past two seasons.
Green Bay would welcome Jones back with open arms, though the 26-year-old has earned the right to test the market and should see plenty of interest as the clear alpha in an otherwise pedestrian free-agent running back crop. The Packers spent a second-round pick on 247-pound behemoth AJ Dillon in last year’s draft, a move that would seem to foreshadow Jones’ inevitable departure from cheese country. With that in mind, here are seven potential landing spots for Jones as he embarks on his free-agent journey.
Atlanta Falcons
If Jones’ preference is to win right away, Atlanta probably isn’t for him. The Falcons also don’t have much cap space to accommodate free agents (only the similarly cap-strapped Saints and Eagles have less spending money), further complicating their pursuit of Jones. But with Todd Gurley a long shot to return and Brian Hill also a free agent, the backfield-needy Falcons are left with 295 unaccounted-for carries, a void the versatile Jones could easily fill. Jones combining forces with rookie coach Arthur Smith would be a match made in heaven. In Smith’s two seasons as Titans offensive coordinator, only the ground-obsessed Ravens dialed up the run on a higher percentage of plays. With Jamaal Williams involved, Jones was never afforded true bell-cow usage in Green Bay. That would change the moment he steps foot in Atlanta.
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo was an offensive juggernaut this season, averaging the league’s second-most points (31.3) and second-most yards per game (396.4). Dominant as the Bills were in 2020, they did leave room for improvement in one crucial area. While Buffalo’s aerial attack soared (third in both passing yards and touchdowns), the Bills were mediocre on the ground, submitting averages of just 4.2 yards per carry (20th) and 107.7 rushing yards per game (also 20th). Quarterback Josh Allen was credited with half the team’s rushing touchdowns (eight end-zone visits) as Buffalo more or less abandoned its running game in the playoffs, logging just 34 carries (with Allen accounting for 14 of those) over its final two games. The Bills have spent third-round picks on Devin Singletary and Zack Moss each of the past two drafts, but neither have proven to be difference-makers. Moss, a former Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year at Utah, showed some potential as a rookie in 2020, though he’s not an impressive athlete (4.65 forty) and battled injuries (five missed games) throughout his debut campaign. The Bills still face a daunting road in the AFC—the high-powered Chiefs appear to have supplanted New England as the NFL’s new dynasty—but adding a back of Jones’ elite caliber would certainly improve their chances of bringing a Lombardi to Western New York.
Miami Dolphins
With Tua Tagovailoa a work in progress—let’s not forget he was coming off hip surgery and saw limited offseason reps with COVID forcing teams into hibernation—the Dolphins would be wise to take some of the heat off their young quarterback by incorporating a strong rushing presence. Myles Gaskin played well in spurts this season, though he also missed time due to injury and his seventh-round pedigree would suggest he’s not the team’s long-term solution at the position. Neither are undrafted backups Salvon Ahmed and Matt Breida, the latter largely being phased out of Miami’s offense down the stretch. The fact the Fins won 10 games while averaging just 3.9 yards per carry (fourth-worst) is a testament to Brian Flores’ coaching and the strength of Miami’s opportunistic defense (league-high 29 takeaways). The Dolphins should have the funds necessary (eighth-most cap room) to make Jones a competitive offer and besides, who wouldn’t want to play in South Beach?
New England Patriots
I should probably start off by saying, blind spending has never been New England’s MO. It’s also worth mentioning the Patriots have rarely committed to an every-down workhorse, preferring to keep teams guessing by employing short-yardage thumpers (LeGarrette Blount being the most prominent example) in tandem with shifty receiving specialists like James White. That approach has obviously worked for them—only the Ravens, Titans and Browns rushed for more yards this past season—though a chunk of that production came from White, Rex Burkhead and Cam Newton (who led all quarterbacks with 12 rushing touchdowns), all of whom are free agents. The Patriots still have Damien Harris and Sony Michel at their disposal, though both carry durability concerns and are largely non-existent in the passing game. New England, coming off its first losing season in two decades, may not be a preferred destination for Jones, though the Pats have plenty of cap space ($58.4 million, fourth-most) to entice him with. While Matthew Stafford clearly wanted nothing to do with the Patriots (perhaps due to his tense relationship with Matt Patricia), others in that position would jump at the chance to play for legendary head coach Bill Belichick. Likely? No. But don’t rule it out.
New York Jets
New York’s leading rusher this season was (checks notes) 37-year-old Frank Gore, so yeah, Gang Green could probably use an overhaul in the running back department. It would only be natural for the Jets to feel gun-shy in the wake of their failed Le’Veon Bell experiment, but Jones comes with significantly less tread on his tires (782 career touches compared to Bell’s 1,541 when he signed) and carries none of the baggage that has made Bell such a controversial figure throughout his career. And while New York’s pitiful 2-14 record isn’t a selling point, better days are ahead with Robert Saleh taking over for laughingstock coach Adam Gase and the Jets reportedly at the top of Deshaun Watson’s trade wish list. After spending the first four years of his career in the relative anonymity of rural Wisconsin, Jones would have no shortage of branding opportunities playing in the country’s largest media market. At a position with a famously short shelf life, that prospect could appeal to Jones’ entrepreneurial sense.
Pittsburgh Steelers
If this season proved anything it’s that Ben Roethlisberger’s arm, once among the NFL’s strongest, is on borrowed time. With Ben’s deep ball a distant memory, a strong running game to take the onus off Roethlisberger is a necessity. The Steelers’ lack of rushing success proved to be their undoing in 2020, ranking dead-last in both yards per carry (3.6) and rushing yards per game (84.4). Only the Jaguars (who you may recall won all of one game) passed on a higher percentage of their offensive plays this season. Cap space is an issue—only the Eagles, Saints and Falcons have less margin for error in that regard—though Roethlisberger accepting a pay cut (which he would supposedly be amenable to) would alleviate that concern somewhat. With injury-prone plodder James Conner and slot receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster both slated for free agency, Jones would make all the sense in the world for Pittsburgh, giving the Steelers’ backfield a much-needed jolt with his receiving prowess (131-1,057-6 on 184 career targets) and playmaking ability. If winning matters to Jones, the Steelers have also done their fair share of that, reaching the playoffs five of the last seven seasons with four division crowns in that span.
Seattle Seahawks
After pacing the league with 2,560 rushing yards (160 per game) in 2018 and finishing fourth the following season, the Seahawks moved away from their run-first identity in 2020, letting Russell Wilson “cook” to the tune of 558 passing attempts, easily a career-high for the nine-year vet. It was fun to see Wilson, a gunslinger of the highest order, finally cut loose, unfurling downfield missiles to grown man DK Metcalf and speedy sidekick Tyler Lockett. But now it’s back to the drawing board for the Seahawks, who fizzled down the stretch by averaging just 21.5 points over their final four games, prompting them to part ways with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer after the season. Might the Seahawks return to their ground-and-pound roots in 2021? If so, Seattle would be an ideal landing spot for Jones, especially with Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde likely headed elsewhere in free agency. Jones has manhandled the Seahawks throughout his career, notching four touchdowns and 169 yards from scrimmage in two games against them. Suffice it to say, Seattle doesn’t need to be reminded of his credentials.
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