The 2019 season marks the final year in Globe Life Park, a beautiful building that’s hosted so many Rangers memories.
This season is also the beginning of a new chapter with the start of the Chris Woodward era. Bookmark this story and check back with me in a few years if you’d like to hold me to the following: I truly believe this is the beginning of something special.
In an attempt to once again be at the forefront of where baseball is headed, just as they were at the beginning of this decade, the Rangers invested heavily in infrastructure and technology to aid their research and development as well as their utilization of analytics. The goal for the Rangers isn’t to get “back” for a year or two, but for a decade or two, as tough as that is to do.
The success of the 2019 season will be once again be marked by the development and growth of Texas’s youth, but there’s no reason this team can’t surprise folks and fight for a playoff spot a la the 2017 Twins. Let’s take a gander at some of the players who will be a part of the squad and consider some numbers and nuggets that have defined their past and might impact their future.
Now the longest-tenured Ranger, Elvis is the 7th player in franchise history to appear in 10 consecutive seasons with the club. With the exception of last year, Elvis has been a bastion of health playing in 1,476 games since he entered the league, 6th most in the Majors during that time. After back-to-back promising offensive seasons, Elvis’s OPS dipped below .700 again. The Rangers believe his dip was a product of missing more than 60 games due to a broken elbow suffered early in the season and expect him to help anchor what should be a productive lineup.
Acquired in the Jurickson Profar trade, Bird is a lefty who adds some southpaw depth in the bullpen. His presence will allow Jeffrey Springs to be used in multiple ways—to get lefties, to work multiple innings, or to simply work as a setup man that night—because Bird is still there to get a tough lefty if needed. Bird posted a 1.94 ERA over 55.2 IP at AAA Durham for the Rays while holding batters to a .195 BA. Lefties at AAA hit just .164 versus Bird. Now it’s a matter of seeing how lefties at the big league level fare against him.
Signed this off-season on a one-year deal, Cabrera, who was an All-Star with the Indians in 2011 and 2012, had a tale of two seasons for two different teams in 2018. Starting the year with the Mets, Cabrera was hitting .277 with an .817 OPS before he was sent to the Phillies. Cabrera struggled for the Phils in a playoff push hitting just .228 with an OPS of .678. He’s just 33 years old and the Rangers hope he has at least one more good year left.
Chavez is entering his third stint with the Rangers organization and second with the big league club. He started 2018 as the Texas longman and ended up pitching in high leverage situations late in the game thanks to a tremendous year. Chavez was sent to the Cubs to help them make the playoffs and he was outstanding posting a 1.15 ERA. Back with the Rangers, Chavez was one of six players last year to appear in at least 60 games and at least 80 innings and his combined 2.55 ERA was 2nd best among that group (Blake Treinen led with 0.78). He’s a versatile reliever able to work in a variety of roles and the Rangers expect to use him in such a way in 2019.
Last year started with so much promise for DeShields, who was given the keys to not just centerfield but the leadoff spot. Unfortunately, injuries marred his entire season beginning with a broken hamate bone in the year’s first series before we got to April. A concussion and a fracture middle finger also sidelined him and he only ended up playing in 106 games. Getting on base is the key for the speedster and he posted an OBP of just .310 in 2018. To remain in the lineup daily, he’ll need to be more of the 2017 version (.347 OBP) than the 2018 version.
From 2015-16, Logan Forsythe was one of baseball’s better second basemen. He slashed .273/.347/.444 (.791) over those years averaging nearly 19 HR and 29 2B. Since, however, Forsythe has struggled offensively slashing .228/.332/.309 (.641). While his bat is important, his defense might be more significant when assessing his value to this team. Forsythe will be asked not serve as the catch-all backup infielder, which includes backing up Elvis at shortstop, a position he’s played in just 21 games in his big league career.
Gallo is easily the most polarizing Rangers player. On one hand, the advanced metrics suggest he’s an above average offensive player (career 108 OPS+, which means he’s 8% better than league average), but on the other hand some folks have a tough time ignoring the .203 career BA and a 2018 in which he fanned 207 times. There’s no doubt he needs to improve his average and contact rate, but let’s not forget that he’s one of nine players in MLB history with multiple 40+ HR seasons before the completion of his age-24 season. Let’s get Gallo’s BA up to .230 and you’re looking at an All-Star who gets on base around 38% of the time.
That’s the hitting. What has to be included when you talk about Joey Gallo is the other stuff. He’s a very good fielder with an outstanding arm and his speed, in spite of his hulking presence, makes him a good baserunner, too. He’s absolutely NOT a guy who swings the bat and nothing else. With all of that said, it’s the offense that can really help make him a star and the Rangers hope—scratch that—the Rangers need him to take a big step forward this year.
The 31-year old reliever earned his way onto the Opening Day roster with a great Spring in which he gave up just two runs over 10.1 innings with nine strikeouts. Gomez saved 37 games for the Phillies in 2016 but lacked the swing-and-miss stuff to raise eyebrows of teams around the league. The Rangers believe he’s made some adjustments to improve his whiff rates. His near K/IP rate in Spring and his 27 strikeouts in 25 innings with the White Sox last year are certainly encouraging. At a minimum, he’s another veteran presence in the Rangers pen.
Maz was on track to have the best year of his young career before a thumb injury sidelined him for the start of the second half and even when he returned he was clearly not the same. He finished with 20 HR for the third straight year while hitting .258. The number that stood out to Chris Woodward, though, was 55.1% groundball rate, which was 5th highest in MLB. Woodward and his staff are working with Mazara on eliminating some of the groundballs and turning them into line drives and fly balls which will create more power for the powerful Mazara. Woodward joins the Rangers from a Dodgers team that has done similar things with Chris Taylor (2017) and Max Muncy (2018) to turn them into impact hitters.
Guzman is a very interesting player for the Rangers. He’s exceptional defensively at first base and showed a lot of promise at the plate in his rookie season. His 16 HR was his career high at any level and showed an impressive ability to hit the ball the other way. After assessing Guzman’s rookie year (.235/.306/.416), Chris Woodward told us they’re preaching stability and balance in the box to Guzzy. Guzman is listed at 6’ 4” but I swear he’s bigger. For guys with long arms and long limbs, maintaining mechanical consistency can be a challenge. With better balance and stability in the box, the Rangers are confident Guzman will take the next step. While a lot of people start the conversation about the Rangers’ young hitters with Gallo and Mazara, they can’t forget about Guzman and his impressive ability to hit to all fields as a youngster.
The 2017 season for Shawn Kelley was rough as he constantly battled back injuries. If you eliminate that year, Kelley has a 2.67 ERA since 2015 and is holding opposing hitters to a .188 BA with a 9.7 K/9. What does that mean? Well, that means he’s been one of the best relievers in baseball over that stretch. What’s more is that he’s held lefties and righties to an OPS against of below .635. With Jose Leclerc holding down the 9th, Shawn Kelley will likely hold down the 8th.
Kiner-Falefa debuted last year and did so playing multiple positions. Catching, however, will be his focus in 2019. He isn’t a big body and some wonder how many games his body will allow him to catch this season. If he gets them 70 starts at catcher, the Rangers will be thrilled. With Jeff Mathis here, Izzy has about as great and as willing of a teammate/tutor as there is.
Lynn was Texas’s biggest off-season acquisition when he arrived after inking a 3-year, $30 million deal. A part of a staff with two players who didn’t pitch in the bigs last year for health reasons and a third who logged just 16.0 IP in 2018, also for health reasons, Lynn will be counted on to eat innings. Since 2012, Lynn has made 188 starts, which ranks 26th in MLB. Not incredibly impressive until you consider that he missed all of 2016 due to…you guessed it…Tommy John. Lynn lives with his 4-seam fastball, a pitch that generated a whiff rate of 26.3%, 9th best among starters in 2018.
Martin’s debut season with the Rangers and its ups and downs. From the start of May through July 4th, Martin was very effective with a 3.27 ERA. However, that marked the beginning of a slew of injuries—a calf strain and a groin strain after Independence Day—and as he tried to pitch through them, he struggled with a 4.86 ERA after July 4th. If healthy, Chris Woodward believes Chris Martin is more than capable of locking down the 8th inning.
Miller hasn’t even pitched a half of a season since 2016 after Tommy John cut short his 2017 and led him to just 16 innings of work in 2018. Ignore his 6-17 record with the then lowly Braves in 2015—Miller was actually really good that year in which he worked 205.1 IP and posted a 3.02 ERA. He was an All-Star that season, which was the third year of a three-year run in which he had a combined 3.27 ERA. After 2015, Miller was shipped to Arizona and is the case sometimes when pitchers change teams, the teams try and change the pitcher…mechanically, speaking. The Rangers are working on improving Miller’s mechanical consistency and with that they believe he can return to the form he showed from 2013-2015.
The Rangers acquired Minor prior to last season after he was dominant the year before out of the Kansas City bullpen. Texas, however, signed him to be a part of their starting rotation and knew the transition back might not happen overnight. And…well…they were right. Minor was inconsistent at best in the first half, but did flash moments of dominance. The second half, however, was the payoff and what has earned Minor the status of this staff’s Opening Day starter. He wasn’t just “good” in the second half…he was one of the best pitchers in the AL. His 2.97 second-half ERA was 8th best among starters in the AL and his 0.94 WHIP was 2nd best among starters in the AL, trailing only the eventual Cy Young winner, Blake Snell. But dig deeper, and you’ll see he was so much more effective with all of his pitches after the break. In the second half, opponents hit .154 off his slider (.240 in the first), .143 off of his changeup (.257 in the first), and .077 off of his curveball (.158 in the first). His whiff rate rose from 23% to 30% and he nearly cut the slugging against him in half at .243 down from .438 on those pitches.
What was the difference? When I asked Minor he just said he felt out of whack with his mechanics in the 1st half and was playing catch up. The turn in results was in line with the time in the season when he felt like he had finally developed mechanical consistency. The solution for this year? Minor said he started his throwing program earlier this year so as to know of the cobwebs in time for the Spring.
For all the knocks against Rougned Odor, let’s not forget that his 106 HR by a second baseman through their age-24 season is by far and away the most in MLB history. The runner-up is Bobby Doerr with just 72. He also was a Gold Glove finalist in 2018, finishing the year tied with Ian Kinsler for the most Defensive Runs Saved. Is he slowly developing into a—wait for it…wait for it—an all-around second baseman?
The big question will be whether Odor’s improved plate discipline from the second half was just a fad or a part of a new-Rougie. He played in just 129 but walked a career-best 43 times, including a five-walk game against Baltimore. His swing rate in the first half of 52.8% dropped to 47.6% in the second half. His plate discipline is by no means perfect where it is, but he ended the year with the arrow pointing in the right direction. If he keeps working towards progress, he really could become one of the game’s best second basemen.
In a very short time, Pence emerged as a favorite amongst his teammates in the Rangers’ clubhouse. Veterans and youngsters alike have flocked to his side for guidance or conversation. He’s a very positive influence. The question, however, is whether he will contribute and, if so, in what role. He’ll likely not have an everyday role and will need to be prepared to play on occasion, something the three-time All-Star has not done often in his career. As a right-handed bat in a lefty-heavy outfield, he’ll likely get a lot of chances versus left-handed pitching. Last year was a rough year for Pence, but he hit just .192 versus lefties. Over his career, however, he’s hit .277 (compared to .281 vs. RHP) with more power against southpaws than righties. He spent the off-season playing Winter Ball—rare for someone with his resume—and says it rejuvenated him. If he can find a niche, he’d be a great guy to add to the mix for first-year manager Chris Woodward.
Sadzeck’s trajectory with the organization has been interest. He’s a big-bodied hard thrower who was once thought of as a potential rotation fixture. He never quite developed as a starter, but the Rangers saw potential for him to succeed as a reliever. After working in the minors since 2012, Sadzeck made his MLB debut in 2018 and posted a 0.96 ERA over 13 appearances and 9.1 innings. Great, right? Well, yes, but he walked 11 over that stretch which, over time, obviously wouldn’t fly at that rate. Can he finally put it together? With Sadzeck out of options, it’s now or never with the Rangers otherwise he’ll try and make it happen in a different organization.
Smyly hasn’t pitched in a big league game since 2016. He debuted with the Tigers in 2012 and has amassed a career ERA of 3.74. The potential is there for Smyly, who scouts have identified to me as the guy they think will have the most success out of the Texas TJ trio. When he’s at his best, he elevates his low-90s fastball really well. A high spin rate creates some deception and makes it seem faster than it is.
Springs made his big league debut last year and was really effective. He posted a 3.38 ERA over 32.0 IP and was used as a reliever and an opener, and is capable of working multiple innings. He’s a lefty, but by no means a lefty-only guy thanks to a very good changeup. Against lefties, he mostly scraps the change in favor of a slider, but it is the fastball that’s got to improve. Big leaguers hit .292 against his fastball in 2018. If that improves, Springs will likely emerge as a very crucial reliever for the Rangers.
Coming back from Tommy John surgery isn’t easy. Coming back from Tommy John surgery well into your 30s isn’t easy. Coming back from a second Tommy John surgery isn’t easy. Now, what about coming back from a second Tommy John surgery while well into your 30s? That’s what Volquez is attempting in his second stint with the Rangers. Turning 36 in July, Volquez signed with the Rangers last year with the idea that he’d spend the first year of two-year deal rehabbing with the on-field payoff coming in 2019. He’s been an All-Star, won a World Series, and thrown a no-hitter—the last of which he did in his most recently healthy season while playing for the Marlins—but Volquez wants more. His fastball hit 97 mph in Spring Training while sitting 94-96. That shouldn’t happen for someone with his medical history and his age. The narrative around Surprise, however, was the importance of throwing his breaking ball and changeup in all counts so as to keep hitters off of his fastball. For Volquez, the changeup will be key. He’ll throw it against lefties and righties and opponents hit .167 against it in 2017.