It's almost impossible to dodge the expectations for Baltimore Orioles prospect Jackson Holliday. That's what happens when the No. 1 prospect in Major League Baseball rakes during spring training and flirts with breaking camp with the club. JJ Cooper, from Baseball America, joined Inside Access Thursday and shared his thoughts on expectations with Jason La Canfora, Ken Weinman, and Tim Barbalace.
"I do think this year the goal should be, and a realistic goal is, productive contributor rather than star," Cooper said.
But what about thoughts of 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases?
"I think he's going to be a very productive player," Cooper said. "I would not expect 20 homers. Maybe 20 steals, but I think the power will be the last thing that kind of arrives on the big league level."
Holliday has 14 hits in 48 spring plate appearances, but also has 15 strikeouts. That 67 percent increase in strikeout rate looks jarring, but Cooper said it could be a result of situation more than anything, potentially even pressing a bit.
"He's been a little more aggressive than he normally is," said Cooper. "I expect that to kind of return to normal. A 30 percent strikeout rate which he had this spring is way higher than I expect to see for Jackson Holliday over the course of a full season."
Cooper expects to see very good defense, base running, hitting for average, and getting on base, and says if that's all Holliday provides to the Orioles, that's fine. "That's all they need him to do.
They don't need him to be their best player, or their second best player, or their third best player this year or anything like that. And if you can do that in the big leagues as a 20-year-old, then you just keep stacking on new things every year."
Holliday is farther ahead of most prospects at this point in his career, Cooper told Inside Access Holliday has already mastered skills other prospects won't master until they're 23-25 years old. Holliday's done it at 20.
"That just gives him basically an open book of possibilities for things for him to develop," Cooper said. "But I do think this year the goal should be, and a realistic goal is, productive contributor rather than star."