With just about two months to go before the midterm elections, President Joe Biden made an announcement Thursday that democracy is under attack and lambasted both his predecessor – former President Donald Trump – and Trump’s fanbase.
How might this speech impact the upcoming elections?
While conservative outlet National Review called the speech “catastrophic,” it only appeared to help the sitting president’s approval rating, according to data from FiveThirtyEight. Biden’s approval rating was 42.4% Wednesday, compared to 42.8% Friday after his speech.
A Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday showed that Biden’s approval rating had already “surged” in August compared to July. Last month, the president and the Democratic party were able to make strides toward some of their goals. These include Biden’s announcement about student debt relief and signing the Inflation Reduction Act. An August Bureau of Labor Statistics report also found that inflation had stayed level in July after increasing to around 9% over the previous months.
An unpopular decision by the U.S. Supreme Court in June to overturn the 1970s landmark Roe v. Wade legislation that protects abortion rights has also impacted the nation’s political climate this summer. This month, Biden announced an executive order on securing rights to reproductive healthcare services.
This week’s Quinnipiac poll results also found that half of Americans polled believe that Trump should face criminal charges for the way he handled classified documents, such as ones recovered during a raid on his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida last month.
“Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic,” said Biden Thursday during his speech at Independence Hall in Philadelphia, Penn.
Although he said that “not every Republican, not even the majority of Republicans, are MAGA Republicans,” Biden argued that there is “no question that the Republican Party today is dominated, driven, and intimidated by Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans, and that is a threat to this country.”
He added that he thinks MAGA (an acronym for Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan) Republicans do not respect the constitution, believe in the rule of law or recognize the will of the people.
“I believe it is my duty — my duty to level with you, to tell the truth no matter how difficult, no matter how painful,” Biden said.
He referenced the MAGA movement’s unsubstantiated claims of election fraud and attempt to overturn the 2020 presidential election results during the Jan. 6 Capitol riot last year.
“They look at the mob that stormed the United States Capitol on January 6th – brutally attacking law enforcement – not as insurrectionists who placed a dagger to the throat of our democracy, but they look at them as patriots,” Biden said. A House Select Committee investigating the riot held hearings this summer and is expected to resume the hearings this month. Revelations from these hearings could also impact the midterms.
“Biden’s speech was all about making the choice this Election Day,” said the New York Times Friday. The outlet said the president and Democrats “rolled the dice” with the frank speech, “apparently assuming that lying low would not help matters and hoping that a big, televised speech might remind voters why they chose Mr. Biden in 2020.”
Although the 2024 presidential election is years away, The Hill said Friday the president’s speech solidifies this year’s midterms as a “proxy war” between Biden and Trump.
The Times also said the speech may have been intended to counter the Republican depiction of Biden, who will be 80 in November and is less than four years older than Trump, as a “doddering old man.”
As could be expected reactions to Biden’s speech appeared to be split along party lines.
However, Quinnipiac poll results show that 67% Americans already agreed with Biden that democracy was in a perilous position before he gave his speech Thursday.
Both the FiveThityEight and the New York Times note that sitting presidents’ parities often do poorly in the midterm elections. However, projections have shown that Democrats are slightly favored to retain control of the Senate, with Republicans expected to take control of the House of Representatives.
Data updated Friday afternoon indicated that these projections had not changed in the wake of Biden’s speech.
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