Monday marked the opening of the 2026 tax filing season. While paying taxes isn’t something most people think of fondly, this year might be a little different. That’s because many Americans can expect bigger refunds than they normally get.
Why are refunds expected to be bigger?
According to the White House, the “Working Families Tax Cuts Act” championed by President Donald Trump is “delivering the biggest tax refund season ever, with average refunds projected to rise by $1,000 or more this year due to its transformative policies.”
Tax refunds are amounts of money that people in the U.S. over-pay during the year that are refunded after they file their taxes. Sometimes taxpayers owe the government come tax time. It depends on how much they have withheld from their paycheck as well as deductions.
“The higher standard deduction, higher child credit, higher refundable child credit,” are all impacting this tax season, Senior Vice President and Chief Tax Officer at Jackson Hewitt Tax Service Mark Steber recently told Audacy. He added that “changes in rates, and… a whole bunch of state changes,” are also things to look out for.
Indeed, Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy for the Bipartisan Policy Center, said that the 85% to 90% of taxpayers who claim the standard deduction each year on their tax forms will likely see bigger refunds, per CNBC. Last year, the standard deduction increased to $15,750 for single filers and $31,500 for married couples filing jointly, up from $15,000 and $30,000.
Though the deductions increased, tax tables for employers were not updated by the Internal Revenue Service. Tom O’Saben, director of tax content for the National Association of Tax Professionals, said that for people “whose income, filing status, and dependents haven’t changed much since 2024, the combination of expanded tax benefits for 2025 and unchanged withholding is clearly pushing refunds higher,” as quoted by CNN.
Steber and KYW Newsradio noted that tipped workers can deduct $25,000 and that there is a new deduction of up to $12,000 for those who worked overtime. There’s also a deduction up to $6,000 per person for seniors age 65 or older, as well as Trump accounts for babies.
There’s also the expanded SALT deduction. CNN explained that people who live in high-tax states will be allowed to deduct up to $40,000 in state and local taxes, up from $10,000 last year. This deduction can only be claimed by people who itemize rather than take the standard deduction.
“The jump in how much you may deduct means it may make sense for more filers to itemize,” CNN said.
Will everyone get refunds?
Not everyone should expect big refund check. CNN said that those who didn’t usually get a refund might just see a lower tax bill. A Jan. 15 Tax Foundation analysis indicated that “refund size or taxes owed ‘will vary significantly’ depending on individual circumstances.”
Overall, the IRS said that it expects about 164 million individual tax returns for tax year 2025 to be filed ahead of the April 15 tax deadline. According to IRS data cited by CBS News, payments last year averaged around $3,200. With an extra $1,000 many could see refunds over $4,000.
Aditya Bhave, a senior U.S. economist at BofA Securities cited by MarketWatch, said he estimated approximately $100 billion in extra tax-refund money could be coming to consumers, he said.
“That’s money consumers could pour into the economy, giving them additional purchasing power for increasingly expensive goods and services,” MarketWatch noted. “As the single largest payment many households receive all year, refunds could also help people pay off their rising debt burdens. Another possibility is that people will use their refund money to build rainy-day funds, at a time when savings rates are drooping. Or they could invest it in the stock market.”
When will the refunds arrive?
Per the IRS, most refunds should arrive within 21 days of filing. Filing electronically, which 93% of taxpayers did last year, according to CBS News, results in the speediest refund arrival.
“Not only does 2026 commemorate the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence, but it also coincides with the 40th anniversary of electronic filing,” said IRS Chief Executive Officer Frank J. Bisignano in a recent statement. “Just as we did back in 1986, today the IRS encourages taxpayers to speed the processing of their returns by using e-file, instead of paper.”
He also recommended direct deposit for the fastest refunds. Earned Income Tax Credit and the Additional Child Tax Credit are also expected to be available in bank accounts or on debit cards by March 2 for taxpayers who chose direct deposit and have no other issues with their returns.
Information about filing is available here.