A new model from ESPN believes the Philadelphia Phillies will finish in third place behind both the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves.
Given that both the Mets and Braves won 101 games in 2022 and have made key additions this offseason, that's not especially surprising. What is, though, is that the model believes that the Phillies will regress to just 85 wins and miss the playoff altogether in 2023.
The model, put together by ESPN's Bradford Doolittle, used the following criteria:
"These numbers here are a rough cut. Underpinning them are the player projections from Steamer, available at Fangraphs.com. I've made tweaks to playing time forecasts on my depth charts in order to compile a basic win projection for each team, which I used as the basis for running 10,000 simulations of the 2023 schedule."
The simulations came to the conclusion that the Mets will win the NL East, with an average of 102.8 victories. They'll edge out the five-time defending division champion Braves, who claim the top Wild Card spot in the senior circuit with 99.2 wins, per the model.
But despite the additions of Trea Turner, Taijuan Walker, Craig Kimbrel and Matt Strahm, the Phillies were given an average of 85.2 wins by the system. That would be two less wins than in 2022, when the Phillies went 87-75 and snuck in as the final Wild Card representative in the NL. This time around, six NL teams -- Mets, Braves, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers -- are projected to finish above the Phillies, meaning they would miss the playoffs entirely a year after winning the pennant.
There are some legitimate concerns to have about the 2023 Phillies.
Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, Seranthony Domínguez, J.T. Realmuto and José Alvarado all had extended workloads in the postseason, so it may behoove the Phillies to exercise some load management early in 2023.
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They'll also be without two-time NL MVP Bryce Harper for much of the first half, given that he had Tommy John surgery shortly before Thanksgiving.
But while you can point to some concerns, there are other reasons to believe the Phillies will be a better regular season team in 2023 than they were in 2022.
First of all, there's a good chance that the Phillies won't start 21-29 again. After Rob Thomson replaced Joe Girardi, the Phillies went 65-46 the rest of the regular season, a .586 winning percentage. If you include an 11-6 postseason run, the Phillies went 76-52 (.593) under Thomson, who was rewarded with a two-year contract extension to be the full-time manager.
Secondly, while the lineup will miss Harper, there could be rather drastic improvements elsewhere. Turner -- one of the 10 best position players in baseball -- is in at shortstop. Nick Castellanos' track record suggests he'll rebound from a disastrous first season with the Phillies, which saw him post an underwhelming .694 OPS. And there's reason to think that the best is yet to come from the trio of Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh.
Thirdly, pitching reinforcements are on the way for a staff that was taxed in 2022. Walker has had injury and sustainability concerns, but he's one of the best No. 4 starters in baseball. And a trio of exciting young arms -- including Andrew Painter, one of the the top pitching prospects in baseball -- could make their Major League Debuts in 2023.
Given how formidable both the Mets and Braves appear to be, the Phillies may very well end up in third place in the NL East in 2023. But doing so with just 85 wins and no postseason berth appears unlikely.
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