At this stage of the season, the most challenging aspect of handicapping is motivation. A week ago, the prevailing thought was that the Cowboys and Jaguars had quit on the year. Both teams took few bets and won outright.
Because the Bears (7-7) are officially eliminated from playoff contention and the Chiefs (10-4) are still hunting first-round bye in the playoffs, a Kansas City bet would be paying at a premium. A week ago, the look-ahead line was Chiefs -3.5. Now, they’re six-point road favorites with a total of 44.5.
I’d rather bet on the number of times the 2017 draft is discussed than guess on the side or total.
Let's take a look on some of the best bets to make.
Mahomes and his deadly receiving group will have some sky-high player props, as Mahomes is coming off a 340-yard passing performance in snowy conditions against Vic Fangio’s Broncos defense. Travis Kelce collected 142 yards, and Tyreek Hill got into the end zone twice.
The Chiefs run the ball only 37.3% of the time despite often playing with the lead. Over the last three weeks, carries for the Chiefs have been split among five running backs, two receivers, a tight end and a quarterback. Spencer Ware leads the way, playing 40% of offensive snaps in each of his two games.
Even though the Chiefs defense allows 5.0 yards per carry, the third-most in the league, can you really trust Nagy to stick with the ground game? With the Bears being six-point underdogs, the game script will likely lead to plenty of passing with Trubisky.
Over the last five weeks, Miller has averaged 10.4 targets and 86.2 receiving yards. Allen Robinson’s prop will be higher even though Miller has slightly outperformed Robinson in this sample.