(670 The Score) Just as Mike Glennon was told in 2017 he would be the Bears' starting quarterback to open the season, veteran Andy Dalton was given the same assurance as he joined Chicago in free agency in March.
How long Dalton lasts as the Bears' starter is the question, one that could be determined by the quarterback investment that general manager Ryan Pace is willing to make in the draft. Glennon lasted just four games as the starter in 2017.
Upon arriving as Bears general manager in 2015, Pace privately carried the philosophy of taking swings at quarterback nearly each draft. But he has selected just one quarterback in six drafts: Mitchell Trubisky, whom the Bears traded up to take at No. 2 overall in 2017.
Pace either preferred to keep the quarterback room clear of potential competitors to Trubisky or simply didn't find a prospect he liked. Now, the circumstances are different. Not drafting a quarterback in 2021 would create a glaring omission on the Bears' roster, one that lacks a developmental arm.
The Bears seem destined to select a quarterback in the draft, which begins April 29. Let's take a look at how it could happen.
Day 1
Though his job security seemed precarious last year, Pace is set to conduct his seventh draft with the Bears and has the full support of ownership to dictate the franchise's future. In other words, Pace won't be restricted from making another aggressive move up to draft a quarterback.
Clemson's Trevor Lawrence is heading to the Jaguars as the top pick in the draft, while BYU's Zach Wilson looks set to land with the Jets at No. 2 overall. After those picks, anything is in play for the Bears -- with Ohio State's Justin Fields, North Dakota State's Trey Lance and Alabama's Mac Jones among the first-round options.
The 49ers have already traded up to No. 3 overall, so the highest realistic spot the Bears could move up to is No. 4, where the Falcons are reportedly listening to offers. Chicago would likely have to trade its No. 20 overall pick, its 2022 and 2023 first-round slots and a 2021 third-rounder (83rd overall) to make that jump to No. 4. That position would offer a chance at the third or fourth quarterback on the board, depending on whether the 49ers select one with the No. 3 pick.
If the Bears like Fields, Lance and Jones, a path to land one of them could be to trade up to No. 10, a pick held by the Cowboys, who have locked in star quarterback Dak Prescott to a long-term deal. That would likely cost the Bears their No. 20 overall pick, their 2021 second-round slot (52nd overall) and perhaps include an exchange of Day 3 picks.
Fields and Lance seem likely to be selected in the top 10, where the Falcons, Lions and Broncos could all be looking to draft a quarterback. Jones could be drafted as high as No. 3 or fall to the No. 10 spot. The Patriots could also be eyeing a quarterback in the first round. At No. 15 overall, they're currently slotted ahead of the Bears and have significant draft capital to trade up.
If the Bears remain at No. 20, they'll likely need to wait until Day 2 to draft a quarterback. Of course, they have other needs that also need addressed in the first round.
Day 2
If the Bears are still eyeing a quarterback on the second day of the draft, it means Pace stood pat and didn't make a trade up in the first round. He likely added a tackle to bolster the offensive line, a cornerback to replace Kyle Fuller or a receiver to impact the offense.
There's of course greater uncertainty selecting a quarterback outside of the first round. Six different quarterbacks have won the Associated Press NFL MVP in each of the last six years. Of that group, only Tom Brady (2017) wasn't selected in the first round. Brady is a unicorn.
But the Bears hired coach Matt Nagy in January 2018 and later added offensive coordinator Bill Lazor and quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo because they believe in their ability to develop a quarterback, despite Trubisky failing to pan out.
On Day 2 of the draft, two quarterbacks stand out in particular as intriguing quarterback options: Davis Mills (Stanford) and Kyle Trask (Florida). There will be several scenarios in play for the Bears as they hold the No. 52 overall pick in the second round and No. 83 overall in the third round.
The Bears could make it a simple process and choose a quarterback at No. 52. Both Mills and Trask should be available at that slot, especially given how Chicago would be among the last in the game of quarterback musical chairs. Mills has drawn considerable attention as a draft prospect. Trask was a Heisman Trophy finalist. Both look like prototypes for the position and carry upside.
If Pace prefers to roll the dice, he could address another position with the No. 52 pick and then trade up from No. 83 to select a quarterback. Or he could trade back from No. 52, adding some draft capital in return and landing Mills or Trask later in the second round or early in the third round.
Day 3
If the Bears haven't drafted a quarterback by the start of Day 3 -- when the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh rounds are conducted -- it'll represent a failure that reflects poorly upon Pace. He would have gone through the crazy quarterback carousel of this offseason and come out with Dalton, Nick Foles and a lottery ticket prospect selected on the Saturday of draft weekend.
Of the top 20 quarterbacks in passing touchdowns in the NFL in 2020, only two were selected on Day 3 of the draft: Brady and the Vikings' Kirk Cousins. Eight quarterbacks were selected after the third round in 2020. Only two played at any point last season (Jake Luton for the Jaguars, Ben DiNucci for the Cowboys), and none will be starters to open the 2021 season.
That's not to say there aren't interesting possibilities for the Bears on Day 3. Texas A&M's Kellen Mond, Notre Dame's Ian Book and Texas' Sam Ehlinger are among names to consider in the middle and later rounds of the NFL Draft.
However, if the Bears are drafting a quarterback late, it means Dalton is more likely to start for the duration of 2021 while the next young arm is developed.
Chris Emma covers the Bears, Chicago’s sports scene and more for 670TheScore.com. Follow him on Twitter @CEmma670.