(RADIO.COM Sports) We're down to one final game in the NFL season, and it's a great matchup. Super Bowl LV pits the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, with Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes leading the way. It should be an instant classic.
The betting line for the game has toggled between Chiefs -3 and -3.5 throughout the week. Of course, if you don't want to wager on the side, there are plenty of other options with a wide menu of prop bets for gamblers to feast on.
Our sports betting team of Thomas Casale, Vikas Chokshi, Reed Wallace and Lucy Burdge broke down the game from every angle. Here are their best bets for Super Bowl LV.
Casale: Shaq Barrett to record a sack +115 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
I admit there's some randomness to this bet, but I love Barrett to be a factor in the game. He's coming off a three-sack performance in the NFC championship game against the Packers, and he had some success the first time the Buccaneers and Chiefs met, recording one sack and two quarterback hits. He also forced a fumble in that game.
The biggest storyline in this game is Kansas City being without offensive tackle Eric Fisher. It hasn't been talked about nearly as much as it should be in the national media, but Fisher not playing because of an Achilles injury is a huge loss against one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL. I expect Tampa Bay's defense to have success pressuring Mahomes on Sunday. If the Buccaneers win, Fisher's absence will be a big reason why.
Again, I understand this may not be the most popular bet on the board. However, it's my largest wager of Super Bowl LV. Look for Barrett to have a big impact on the game. I also tossed a few bucks on him to win MVP at 60-1.
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Chokshi: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Mahomes is the best player in the game, but the Buccaneers should get pressure on him. Kansas City will be without Fisher, which is really bad timing against this Todd Bowles-led defense and an attacking Buccaneers defensive line. Mahomes' toe injury may also come into play, limiting his ability to pick up yards using his feet.
Tampa Bay’s defense also does a great job at limiting chunk plays, as it's top 10 in both explosive run and pass plays allowed and first in adjusted sack rate. When it comes to stopping the run, Tampa Bay ranks first in defensive rush DVOA, per Football Outsiders. On the flip side, Kansas City is ranked 31st in that same metric.
Tampa Bay also has several weapons that will cause matchup issues for Kansas City, which was the worst team in the NFL in opponents' red-zone scoring percentage. The Buccaneers can take advantage of that and capitalize for touchdowns instead of field goals, which is the only way to hang with Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Tampa Bay will technically have home-field advantage with Raymond James Stadium hosting the Super Bowl. With the craziness of the pandemic, traveling and routines, that's another small advantage for the Buccaneers.
I like the value on Tampa in this spot. I bet the Buccaneers earlier in the week at +3.5 but would take them at +3 as well. I'd suggest waiting until closer to game time to possibly pick up the hook, as oddsmakers have told me they're seeing the majority of bets coming in on Kansas City.
Wallach: Buccaneers-Chiefs over 55.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
For starters, I like Tampa Bay in this game. I believe its defensive line is going to pressure Mahomes and force him into a few mistakes. However, the Buccaneers won't completely shut down the Chiefs' offense. It’s not possible.
It sounds contradictory, but alas, this total has drifted into a buy point of 55.5 for me.
Mahomes is going to get his, just like I expect Brady and the Buccaneers to get their points. Kansas City’s poor rush defense and the deep threats on Tampa Bay's side make me confident each offense will find the end zone four times, cashing this over.
I expect aggressive play-calling from both coaches and some fourth-down attempts. Poor execution can lead to empty possessions, but it can also lead to short fields and quick scores.
Both clubs were also inside the top 10 in interceptions during the regular season, so an ill-timed interception can change the script and make it a track meet. The over 55.5 is my top play for Super Bowl LV.
Burdge: Buccaneers-Chiefs over 55.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
This is going to be a high-scoring game that won't disappoint as Mahomes and Brady lead powerful offenses. Brady might even run in a touchdown or two himself, so take a look at that prop as well.
The Buccaneers are 11-8 on the over this year, while the Chiefs are 9-9. Both quarterbacks and teams are going to come out swinging. The score will surpass 55.5. I like the over now that it has dropped a couple of points since the opening number.