One way another, someone will have to go. Scanning the defensive corps, it’s hard to figure which defenseman would be sent down to AHL Rockford.
Forsling himself could be a candidate. He hasn’t developed at the pace the Hawks had hoped, due in large part to injury. Would they demote newly acquired Slater Koekkoek? It felt that way a week ago, but the Hawks have chosen Koekkoek over Henri Jokiharju and Carl Dahlstrom in the last two games.
With this question in mind, I reached out to one of my top sources in the organization. I asked, "What do you see coming when Forsling comes back? Someone has to go down."
The response? "Someone will get traded."
That was a pretty definitive response and, frankly, it caught me off guard. There are so many ways to look at this.
I believe it’s fair to cross Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook off the list of potential trade options. I find it hard to believe the Hawks will trade one of the "Big Four." Until I see it happen, I’m going to pretty much dismiss it.
Which isn't to say they shouldn’t explore a trade for both players. Keith’s regression is well underway, but a contender looking to solidify its blue line before the playoffs could find Keith quite appealing, especially considering his reasonable $5.3 million cap hit. Yes, he’s signed for four more years, but would a team consider winning a Cup worth dealing with that headache?
Seabrook is about as unmovable as they come, especially considering that the Oilers finally fired general manager Peter Chiarelli, who was always good for a fleecing. After this season, Seabrook will have five years left on his contract at a $6.87-million cap hit annually. No one in their right mind would touch that deal, especially considering Seabrook’s level of play over the last three to four years.
Jokiharju is the Hawks'' top prospect and has looked outstanding for the most part despite a few understandable lulls here and there. At 19, he has been one of the Hawks' steadiest defensemen. He’s not going anywhere.
Connor Murphy is certainly tradable, but he’s also the Hawks' best defenseman at this point and their only real stay-at-home option aside from Seabrook. He’s also coming off a significant back injury, which could (and probably should) scare teams off. Those don’t get better with age and time.
Dahlstrom has been inconsistent but has shown flashes of being a dependable, stay-at-home depth defenseman. Even if the Blackhawks were to trade him, the return would hardly make a move worth it. They’d be better off just sending him down.
So who could the Hawks move?
Forsling is a candidate, but I’m not sure the Hawks are willing to sell low on a 22-year-old defenseman who has shown flashes and seemingly has all the tools to be a top-four defenseman when he maxes out. Amid a down, injury-plagued season for Forsling, teams might not be as high on him as they could be this summer or even next season.
Enter Erik Gustafsson.
Gustafsson has been a huge part of the Hawks' power play resurgence, as they've recorded at least one such goal in nine straight games. His offensive ability is undeniable, as he has 30 points in 48 games. However, the Hawks have prospects Adam Boqvist and Nicolas Beaudin, both offensive-minded defensemen with high ceilings, on the way.
That could make Gustafsson expendable. His agreeable $1.2-million cap hit is another factor that would make him attractive to a trade partner. The Hawks could be looking to sell high on Gustafsson, whose profile is on the rise because of his offensive output.
That’s the move I would make. Gustafsson may go on to play a big role for a Stanley Cup contender, much like Michal Kempny did with the Capitals last season. That’s something the Blackhawks must be willing to deal with. They’re not contending this year or probably next year. After next season, Gustafsson is a free agent. If he sustains offensive numbers like this through next season, the Hawks won’t want to pay him a big contract anyway.
If the Hawks must make a trade that’s not Keith or Seabrook, Gustafsson is the most realistic and best option for a decent return and from a big-picture standpoint.