Mock drafts are, inherently, an exercise in futility. With so many moving parts to consider—trades, free-agent signings, retirements (and, in the case of Tom Brady, unretirements), Combine measurements, Pro Day results, intel from trusted scouts and evaluators—putting together a first-round mock with any level of accuracy is little more than a pipe dream. But even if we’re more wrong than right, mocks give teams and fans a chance to dream big, seduced by the timeless siren song of hope in the form of young, up-and-coming talent. A franchise-altering star could be just a pick away while the disappointment of missing out on a player destined for NFL greatness looms just as large, hovering over teams like a storm cloud waiting to burst. This first-round mock isn’t meant to be taken as gospel, though it should identify positions of need and possible fits for all 32 franchises ahead of next month’s NFL Draft, scheduled for April 28-30 in Las Vegas.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
2. Detroit Lions: Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
3. Houston Texans: Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
4. New York Jets: Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
5. New York Giants: Travon Walker, DE, Georgia
The Jags shouldn’t overthink this. Hutchinson may have been the most dominant player in college football last season, registering a conference-leading 14 sacks (teammate and projected first-round pick David Ojabo was second) while finishing runner-up to Heisman winner Bryce Young. Admittedly, Hutchinson going to his hometown Lions would have made for a better story, but after a second consecutive last-place finish (combined 4-29 record over that span), Jacksonville has to get this right. A year after drafting offensive lineman Penei Sewell in the first round, the Lions address their secondary with Notre Dame’s Kyle Hamilton, a Kam Chancellor clone with rare size (6’4”/220 with 33-inch arms) for the position. Laremy Tunsil, who had been the subject of recent trade rumors, is now expected to remain a Texan in 2022, though that doesn’t preclude Houston from drafting Ekwonu, who could play right tackle in a pinch or even move to guard if need be. Neal was the talk of the Combine, looking as fit as any 340-pounder you’ll ever see, and fills a need for the Jets with uncertainty surrounding 2020 first-rounder Mekhi Becton, who missed most of last season with a knee injury suffered in Week 1. Meanwhile Travon Walker, a key contributor to Georgia’s national championship team this past season, improved his stock considerably in Indy, blazing an absurd 4.51 at 6’5”/272.
6. Carolina Panthers: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
7. New York Giants (via Chicago): Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
8. Atlanta Falcons: Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon
9. Seattle Seahawks (via Denver): Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
10. New York Jets (via Seattle): Sauce Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
The Giants boast two picks in the top seven (the result of last year’s draft-night trade with Chicago, which helped the Bears land Justin Fields), allowing New York to address both sides of the ball in one fell swoop. The Falcons could be tempted to draft a receiver following news of Calvin Ridley’s season-long suspension (Ridley’s future with the team was already murky before his betting scandal), though Atlanta’s desperation for a pass-rusher (league-worst 18 sacks last season) should trump that need. After seeing three quarterbacks go in the first three picks of last year’s draft (Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and Trey Lance), Seattle becomes the first to take the plunge in 2022, replacing Russell Wilson with a similar dual threat in Liberty phenom Malik Willis (40 combined passing and rushing touchdowns as a senior). Sriracha-loving Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner led Cincinnati to an unprecedented playoff appearance last fall, becoming the first “Group of Five” school to ever reach the CFP.
11. Washington Commanders: Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
12. Minnesota Vikings: Jermaine Johnson, DE, Florida State
13. Cleveland Browns: Drake London, WR, USC
14. Baltimore Ravens: Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
15. Philadelphia Eagles (via Miami): Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
Even with criminally underrated Terry McLaurin (who is entering the final year of his rookie contract) as a deep threat, Washington’s receiving corps remains laughably weak. Adding fellow Buckeye Garrett Wilson, a twitchy slot man with 4.3 wheels, to the equation won’t solve everything, but it’s a good enough place to start for the recently-rebranded Commanders, whose only concern right now should be stacking as much skill talent as possible. Reigning Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year Drake London, with his elite length (6’4”) and versatility (he’s equally adept in the slot as he is outside), is just what the doctor ordered for a Cleveland offense gutted by recent losses (Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry among them). Talk about an embarrassment of riches. Thanks to some next-level wheeling and dealing by front-office magician Howie Roseman, the Eagles sit on a treasure trove of picks with three first-rounders in this year’s draft. Stingley gives Philadelphia another capable DB opposite Pro Bowler Darius Slay with Steven Nelson exploring free agency and Avonte Maddox entrenched at slot corner.
16. Philadelphia Eagles (via Indianapolis): David Ojabo, DE, Michigan
17. Los Angeles Chargers: Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
18. New Orleans Saints: Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
19. Philadelphia Eagles: Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt
Drafting Ohio State receivers has proven successful for New Orleans in the past (see Michael Thomas, former Offensive Player of the Year and owner of the NFL’s single-season catch record), so why not run it back with Olave, a two-time all-conference selection who led the Big Ten in touchdowns (13) last season? If he goes to Philadelphia, Williams, who played alongside Olave in Columbus before transferring last fall, would join DeVonta Smith as the second ‘Bama receiver the Eagles have drafted in as many years. Williams may have been a top-ten pick if he hadn’t torn his ACL in January’s National Championship loss to Georgia. As they embark on their post-Ben Roethlisberger Era, the Steelers are said to be enamored with Willis. But after leading Pitt to its first ACC title this past season, pivoting to the hometown kid would be a crowd pleaser, even if Pickett’s hands are unusually tiny for an NFL quarterback.
21. New England Patriots: Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia
22. Las Vegas Raiders: Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
23. Arizona Cardinals: Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
24. Dallas Cowboys: Kenyon Green, OG, Texas A&M
25. Buffalo Bills: Andrew Booth, CB, Clemson
J.C. Jackson’s departure in free agency (he joined the Chargers on a five-year deal after the Patriots surprisingly declined to franchise tag him) leaves New England vulnerable at DB, though Bill Belichick has shown a knack for finding hidden gems at that position (Jackson and Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler were both undrafted). Belichick loves going to the Georgia well (he’s drafted three Bulldogs since 2016) and Dean would fill the linebacker void left by trade casualty Chase Winovich and free-agent defector Dont’a Hightower. The Cardinals find themselves at a similar fork in the road—do they draft a pass-rusher to replace Chandler Jones (second to only Von Miller in career sacks among active players), or plug their secondary hole with McDuffie? Some food for thought—Arizona hasn’t drafted a corner in the first round since Patrick Peterson in 2011.
26. Tennessee Titans: Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Zion Johnson, G, Boston College
28. Green Bay Packers: Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
29. Miami Dolphins (via San Francisco): Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State
30. Kansas City Chiefs: George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue
31. Cincinnati Bengals: Bernhard Raimann, OT, Central Michigan
32. Detroit Lions (via L.A. Rams): Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina
Zion Johnson makes all the sense in the world for Tampa Bay with Pro Bowl guard Ali Marpet headed for retirement (unlike his former teammate Tom Brady, he has no plans of coming back). This isn’t a great draft for running backs but Hall is easily the best of this year’s backfield bunch, earning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year honors in 2021 on the strength of 23 touchdowns (20 rushing, three receiving) and 1,774 yards from scrimmage. The Dolphins need a running back in the worst way after averaging an anemic 3.5 yards per carry (second-fewest) last season. After infuriating Aaron Rodgers by punting on receiver the past two drafts, the Packers finally make things right by ponying up for Arkansas standout Treylon Burks, a physical marvel (6’2”/225) with attributes similar to Titans thoroughbred A.J. Brown. The Bengals have drafted six O linemen in the past three years, though you wouldn’t know it from the 19 sacks Joe Burrow took in the postseason, getting eaten alive in a Super Bowl loss to the Rams. Raimann, a converted tackle who began his collegiate career at tight end, would go a long way toward accomplishing the Bengals’ goal of keeping Burrow upright. Jared Goff obviously didn’t inspire much confidence in his Lions debut, and though Howell arguably regressed in his Chapel Hill swan song, his dual-threat potential (828 yards, 11 touchdowns as a ball-carrier last season) makes him a worthy flyer at pick No. 32.
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