The college football season is coming to a close soon, but we still have the new college football playoff to enjoy before the national championship game. It has been a great season for the BetQL model, which has been on fire as of late. Obviously we haven’t had a ton of games recently with bowls coming up, but in the games we have had, the model has nailed all of its best wagers. The model has gone 4-0 (100% win) on 5-Star CFB bets of $100 in the last 14 days, generating nearly $400 worth of profit for subscribers.
Let’s take a look at some of its favorite bets for the upcoming CFP. Note that star ratings are from 1-to-5 (one being less valuable and five being most valuable).
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame
Spread: Notre Dame -7 (2-Star), Total: Over 51 (3-Star)
The first game up on the docket features the Indiana Hoosiers traveling upstate to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the battle of Indiana. As far as the model goes, it doesn’t see a huge edge on this game anywhere with the current lines available at most sportsbooks. You always want to look for 5-star wagers, and even a 4-star wager is certainly worth a play. However, when you start getting into 3-star or below, it gets more convoluted.
The model has a 2-star wager on Notre Dame -7, as it has them as a -9.5 favorite here, but it isn’t enough to warrant a wager. As far as the total is concerned, it likes the over at 51 a bit more with a 3-star bet there, projecting 55.5 as a fair line. Still, there isn’t anything here that you should be lining up at the window for.
It is worth noting that the model has gone 35-29-4 (55% win) on All Indiana Hoosiers total bets of $100, and 251-158-47 (62% win) on All Notre Dame Fighting Irish bets of $100. The model has a good track record on both teams, so even with a smaller star rating, it could be worth something here.
No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State
Spread: Penn State -8.5 (1-Star), Total: Under 54 (1-Star)
The second game up is between SMU and Penn State, but unfortunately, we once again are not seeing a lot of good action here from the model. To be fair, this isn’t too shocking, as these are all going to be huge games. These lines are going to be very sharp for the most part, as they put their best oddsmakers on large handle games like these. That is why there is never a sharper line than the Super Bowl, as the amount of money wagered is enormous and liability is high.
The model has just a 1-star bet on the spread and the total, so I wouldn’t recommend betting this game for anything but some fun money. It has Penn State as a -9.5 favorite, and the total at 53.5, so you can see that it doesn't differentiate from the sportsbook very much at all.
Normally I’d have a lot more to say, but really there is nothing here, so enjoy the game guys.
No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas
Spread: Texas -11.5 (2-Star), Total: Under 51.5 (2-Star)
The third matchup of the opening round takes us to Texas, as two heavyweight programs battle it out when the Longhorns take on the Tigers. This should be a fantastic game, but once again, the model isn’t feeling any sort of large wager for the game at the current lines and prices. Talk about sharp as a tack, these lines take the cake for some of the most spot on of the year at the books.
The model has a 2-star wager on the Longhorns to cover, as it has them as a -14 favorite for a fair line. The total also garners a 2-star rating, with a fair line of 49.5, so again we are talking a difference of less than a field goal. It is hard to advise a bet at the current lines.
I will say that the model has been picking the winner of Texas games like no one’s business. The model has gone 52-16-7 (77% win) on All Texas Longhorns moneyline bets of $100, but I also would never advise a -450 bet. However, using them in a moneyline parlay could be a great way to play them.
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State
Spread: Ohio State -7.5 (2-Star), Total: Under 47 (3-Star)
Hey, we actually have a 3-star wager in this game, which is one of the best we have on this slate of CFP games. Even still, I wouldn’t play it for a larger sum because it isn’t a 4-star or 5-star, but it still is worth a sprinkle for sure.
While the model still doesn’t like the spread here, it has the Buckeyes as a -10 favorite, so a slight lean to that side. The total is interesting with a 3-star play on the under at 47. The model has the total set at just 42 points, projecting a lower-scoring affair on average. That is a difference of over a field goal, which is the largest differential so far.
In addition to that, the model has gone 41-29-4 (59% win) on All Tennessee Volunteers total bets of $100, so it has been locked in when it comes to the Vols. That is a profit of over $800 for subscribers.
Get up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets at BetMGM! All you need to do is CLICK HERE, sign up for a new account, make your first deposit and bet! Don’t miss out!
Related
