Penn State (11-1) will take on Oregon (12-0) in the 2024 Big Ten Conference Championship Game. Oregon is favored by 3.5 points and the over/under is 49.5 points at the time of this writing.
The Nittany Lions owe a big thank-you to Ohio State for helping them land in this position. The Buckeyes’ Week 14 loss to Michigan handed them their second defeat of the season, vaulting Penn State past them in the Big Ten standings. That’s how, despite falling to Ohio State earlier this year, Penn State finds itself heading to Indianapolis for the conference title game.
Meanwhile, Oregon has left no doubt about its spot in the Big Ten Championship. The Ducks’ perfect 12-0 record is a testament to their dominance, especially after shaking off a slow start offensively. Once they found their rhythm, they didn’t just win—they steamrolled nearly every opponent outside of Ohio State and Wisconsin, cementing themselves as one of the most complete teams in the country.
Keep reading to see what bet I’m targeting for this game with a full explanation.
Best Bet: Oregon -3.5
Penn State’s defense has been its calling card all season, anchoring the Nittany Lions with the No. 6 scoring defense in the country, allowing just 14.0 points per game. Their top-20 sack rate will be a key factor as they look to disrupt Oregon in the trenches. But as good as this defense is, the biggest question is whether it can hold up against a Ducks offense that’s operating at a much higher different level.
While Penn State managed to hold Ohio State’s 12th-ranked scoring offense to 20 points earlier this season, it still lost by a touchdown. Granted, the Buckeyes boast the best defense in the country, but Oregon isn’t far behind at No. 9, making this an uphill battle for Penn State on both sides of the ball. Beyond Ohio State, the next-best offense Penn State faced was USC, which ranks just 43rd nationally—a significant step down from what the Ducks bring to the table.
Oregon’s offense, led by quarterback Dillon Gabriel, is a well oiled machine. The Ducks rank in the top 10 in both EPA per rush and EPA per dropback, showcasing a balanced attack that’s incredibly hard to defend. Gabriel’s quick release—getting the ball out in under three seconds—will put pressure on Penn State’s secondary. If the Nittany Lions can make Gabriel hesitate or take away his first read, it could create opportunities for their pass rush to rack up sacks and disrupt Oregon’s rhythm.
That said, the Ducks have proven time and again they’re built to handle adversity. They’ve already been tested this season, taking down Ohio State at home and dismantling then-No. 20 Illinois. While they struggled on the road at Wisconsin, they proved they can close out games even when they’re not at their best.
Oregon’s explosiveness is another problem Penn State has yet to face. The Ducks rank No. 7 in yards per play, meaning one mistake in coverage could result in a big play that changes the game. Gabriel’s ability to capitalize on gambles by the secondary will leave Penn State’s defense with little room for error.
And then there’s the James Franklin factor. The narrative surrounding his struggles against top teams is hard to ignore. Franklin is 3-18 against top-10 opponents, with his last win coming back in 2016, and just 1-13 against top-5 teams. Oregon, of course, is the No. 1 team in the nation.
I’m laying the points with the Ducks in this one.
Get up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets at BetMGM! All you need to do is CLICK HERE, sign up for a new account, make your first deposit and bet! Don’t miss out!
Related
