The opening round of the College Football Playoff brings us an exciting matchup between #9 Tennessee (10-2) and #8 Ohio State (10-2). With contrasting styles and plenty of intrigue, this game has already drawn significant betting attention. As public sentiment leans toward the Volunteers, there’s value in backing the Buckeyes and the under. Let’s break down the best bets for this high-stakes clash.
Ohio State -7 (-115, BetMGM)
I suspect that a lot of underdogs are going to be popular plays for the opening round of the College Football Playoff, as afterall, every team that made it in is there for a reason. I feel like Ohio State specifically is going to be a team that people are going to want to fade after their last game of the season was an embarrassing loss to Michigan. The early returns at DraftKings Sportsbook is showing just that right now, with nearly all of the early money taking the Vols at this +7.5 number.
Right now, a whopping 88% of the money and 76% of tickets are taking Tennessee to cover the spread at DraftKings. Of course, we have to understand that this is very early. We have a long way to go before we actually get to kickoff, so a lot can change in that time. However, I don’t expect the public to shift sides here on this game.
The Buckeyes outright loss to the Wolverines was shocking, as they were nearly a 20-point favorite, and a lot of public bettors were scorned by that loss. It was obviously a terrible loss, especially since they simply can’t beat Michigan since Ryan Day became the head coach. A lot of people are down on him, but I think they show up in a big way here.
I also don’t trust the Tennessee offense against this Ohio State defense. QB Nico Iamaleava has shown flashes of brilliance this season, but he also has had trouble at times and has been inconsistent at best. He’s a freshman, so it isn’t shocking to see him on a roller coaster of ups and downs, but this is a huge spot for him. We’ll see if he can shine in this spotlight, but I think more trouble will be on the way here. The Buckeyes have one of the best defenses in the country against the pass, ranking 12th in the FBS in passing yards allowed.
The Vols have a stingy defense, especially against the run, but they can be had through the air. It will be up to Will Howard, who many are down on after that Michigan game, to navigate his team to the next round. The game has a very low total of 47, so I don’t think odds makers have much love for the Tennessee offense as a 70-point underdog with a total that low.
Tennessee at Ohio State Under 47.5 (-110, BetMGM)
I think Ohio State covering correlates to the under here. The only way I see Tennessee winning this game is if they start lighting it up on offense, which I don’t think happens. I don’t think the Buckeyes are going to be world beaters either on that side of the ball, but I think this is just a very bad spot for the Vols and they got a bad draw with the Buckeyes.
In addition to that, the over is always going to be a popular public play, and you can count on tons of tickets and money to flow into the over as we get closer to kickoff. The early money is very telling, as 70% of the tickets and 72% of the cash is on the over. That is only going to get worse as the game inches closer, and the books are certainly going to want a low-scoring affair here. I’ll be on that side as well.
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