In the blink of an eye, we are already fast approaching Super Bowl week after the AFC and NFC Champions were crowned on Sunday. The Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs will square off in Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans, a rematch of Super Bowl LVII in February of 2023. That game was incredibly close, ending with a Chiefs 38-35 victory, which started their current run at a possible three-peat. No team in NFL history has ever managed to win the Super Bowl three straight seasons, but Kansas City will try to do just that in a couple Sundays.
Over at BetMGM, they opened as a very small favorite to accomplish their goal at -125 odds on the moneyline, while the Eagles are getting +105 to put an end to their reign of terror. On the spread, Kansas City opens as a -1.5 favorite with a -110 price tag. The total is quite interesting, if not very average for an NFL game, opening at 48.5.
Within minutes of the market opening for Super Bowl LIX, the total moved up from 48.5 to 49.5 at BetMGM, signaling early sharp money favoring the over in the game. Not much going on with the spread or moneyline so far as I write this on the Monday morning after the championship games, with a very small 5 cent movement to get the Chiefs to -130 on the moneyline and -115 on the spread of -1.5.
Our friend John Ewing from BetMGM was kind enough to share some early betting splits with us. So far, 66 percent of bets and 72 percent of money is on the Chiefs -1.5. 88 percent of bets and 90 percent of early money is on the over, which makes sense with the line movement we saw there right away. As far as the moneyline goes, 54 percent of bets and 35 percent of money is on Philadelphia. When you add that all up, a majority of the money is on the Chiefs and the over in the early going.
Philadelphia's odds to win the Super Bowl have been a whirlwind this year. They opened at 16/1 before the start of the season to take home the Lombardi Trophy, which isn’t a super longshot, but also not a favorite. They were +700 entering Wild Card weekend, and +180 before they defeated the Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship. Now, they are +110 against the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX.
Kansas City has been a favorite all season, as you probably could have guessed, and opened before the year at 7.5/1 to complete the three-peat. Before the playoffs started, they were 3.5/1 to win it all, and +240 before their victory over the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship. Now, they are a -130 favorite to complete the trifecta to become the greatest football dynasty of all time. Interestingly, 17 percent (most) of the money is on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl, so BetMGM is likely going to prefer the Eagles to win the game.
It is going to be very interesting to see where the money flows as we start to draw closer and closer to the big game. Personally, I’ll be curious if we see more hate money get placed on the Eagles, just like we saw with the Bills. There is a lot of anger from NFL fans over the Chiefs being in the Super Bowl for five of the last seven years, wanting more variety in the matchups and even claiming the league is fixing the games for them. We’ll keep you updated with the latest numbers leading up to Super Bowl LIX!