The BetQL model has been red hot in college football this season, and now that we have made it to the College Football Playoff, everyone is going to be looking at odds on who is going to win the National Championship. Well, we have you covered with the model’s simulation of the entire CFP. After simulating every game 10,000 times, let’s take a look at which teams are projected to win each game and identify which bets are smart to make before the action kicks off.
FIRST ROUND SIMULATION RESULTS
Ohio State (66%) over Tennessee (34%)
According to the BetQL model, we give the Buckeyes about a 66% chance to advance in the CFP after 10,000 simulations of this game with the Vols. Considering that the best number you can get on Ohio State’s moneyline right now is -265 at DraftKings, that is an implied winning percentage of 72.60%. That means that a fair value for the model would set this at around -194.
Based on those numbers, the model would take the plus money with Tennessee, as the +230 you can get on them right now is positive EV relative to the projection. Still, a majority of the time, the Buckeyes advance in the playoff. We’ll advance them here.
Texas (70%) over Clemson (30%)
Just as we did with the last matchup, we’ll take a look at this one here between the Longhorns and Tigers. The BetQL model is giving Texas a 70% chance to advance past Clemson here after 10,000 simulations. Right now, the best number I can find on Texas ML is -395, which is an implied odds of 79.80% that they win the game. The projected fair value price for us at 70% is -233.
Once again, based on those numbers, the model thinks it is more likely than what the market predicts that Clemson pulls off the upset. However, with a 70% chance that the Longhorns can get the win, we’ll advance them further in the playoff here.
Notre Dame (72%) over Indiana (28%)
The third game of the first round has the Indiana Hoosiers heading to South Bend to take on Notre Dame for the battle of Indiana. The BetQL model is giving the Fighting Irish a 72% chance to win this football game, while Indiana is down at just 28%. Taking a look at the current prices in the market, the best I can find on Notre Dame is -285. That is implied odds of 74.03% that they win the game, whereas the model would have fair odds of -257.
That is by far the shortest difference to this point between the model and what the actual price is in the market. Based on this, there really isn’t a lot of value here in taking the Hoosiers on the moneyline, and we’ll be advancing Notre Dame. The model also has the Irish as the most likely team to advance in the first round with their 72% mark.
Penn State (63%) over SMU (37%)
All chalk for the model here, but that makes sense when you are simulating the game 10,000 times. A majority of the time, every favorite is going to win, but of course there are always upsets. For the last game here, the model is giving the Nittany Lions a 63% chance to advance past SMU. Right now in the market, the best price you can find on Penn State is -310, which is an implied winning percentage of 75.61%. Our fair odds for Penn State to win would be -170.
This is quite the large difference, and maybe there is some value here in fading big game James Franklin and the Nittany Lions. Since the model still favors Penn State, we will advance them here, but don’t be super shocked by an upset.
SECOND ROUND SIMULATION RESULTS
Rose Bowl: Oregon (77%) over Ohio State (23%)
Onto the second round, and since we don’t know if these will actually be the matchups, we don’t have actual odds for this game. However, the model simulates based off of who is the most likely to advance in each game after 10,000 sims, so it has the most likely matchups. According to the model, the Ducks will take on the Buckeyes in the second round. The model seems to be very bullish on the Ducks, giving them a huge 77% chance to win this game. That is implied odds of -334.
If I had to guess, I highly doubt they will be anywhere near that against Ohio State. This game will probably be lined closer to a pick ‘em, so a bet on the Ducks at such a short price would then present value for the model. With such an overwhelming chance to win, the model moves the Ducks onto the third round.
Peach Bowl: Texas (75%) over Arizona St. (25%)
This is interesting, but also not surprising. Arizona State has the higher seed and got a bye, but the Longhorns are going to be favorites here, but by how much will be the key to getting value. The model is projecting them with a 75% chance to win this game, which is implied odds of -300. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if that is what they opened as, maybe even a bigger favorite than that.
Texas is one of the biggest favorites this season to win the National Championship game, and they are likely to be favored in almost every matchup they would be in, especially against a school like Arizona State. Texas moves on here.
Sugar Bowl: Georgia (60%) over Notre Dame (40%)
This is where it really gets interesting. Just as the Fighting Irish were the biggest projected favorite in the first round, they have the best chance of any lower seed to advance according to the model at 40%. It is giving the Bulldogs a 60% chance to advance over Notre Dame, which means the fair odds would be -150.
In full disclosure, this was simulated WITH Carson Beck as the starting quarterback for Georgia. He was injured in their game against Texas for the SEC Championship, and we don’t really know what his status is. These odds can certainly change if it is a serious injury.
It’s tough to gauge what a hypothetical line would be for this game, but I actually would make the Irish a small favorite if Beck is out. However, as of this writing, we’ll advance the Bulldogs given their higher chance to win the game.
Fiesta Bowl: Penn State (76%) over Boise St. (24%)
The last game of the second round will also see a lower seed favored over a higher seed, as the Nittany Lions are getting a huge 76% chance to take down the Broncos. That is an implied odds mark of -316, so they would be a substantial favorite here according to the model. That wouldn’t be shocking since Boise plays in the Mountain West Conference, which is not considered the toughest of schedules in existence. Penn State would easily be the biggest challenge they have faced all year.
I’d expect Penn State to be around a -10 favorite against Boise in this matchup, so this price makes sense. The model will advance them past the Broncos and into the next round.
SEMIFINAL ROUND SIMULATION RESULTS
Oregon (58%) over Texas (42%)
Now we are really getting down to it, back to the four-team playoff of old. This would be a huge matchup, one of the most viewed of the entire season if the Longhorns played the Ducks. This is the game that the model is projecting to happen right now, and it is also giving the No. 1 seeded Ducks a 58% chance to win the game over Texas.
This is the closest projection so far, with implied odds of just -138 on Oregon to advance to the National Championship game. The model has them moving on here, but, my goodness, it would be by a thin margin.
Georgia (59%) over Penn State (41%)
The last game before we get to the projected championship winner, the Bulldogs will take on the Nittany Lions in another SEC vs. Big Ten showdown. As it stands, the model is projecting that defending national champion Georgia will advance back to the title game 59% of the time in this matchup. That is implied odds of -144 to advance, so once again, this is going to be a very closely lined game.
Personally, I’d be shocked if Penn State made it that far. James Franklin is notorious for failing in the biggest moments, and they seem like an upset waiting to happen. However, if they do play Georgia, I could definitely see the game being lined within a field goal. The model will advance the Bulldogs here.
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP SIMULATION RESULTS
Georgia (51%) over Oregon (49%)
The BetQL model has had a lot of success over the years projecting the national champion, and one reason for that is because generally the favorites always win in the end. The books love this too, as their liability on these underdogs at huge plus money goes away, and they love to see the chalk win when it comes to futures.
By the narrowest of narrow margins, the model has Georgia winning the championship again this season. With a winning percentage of 51%, they have an implied odds probability of -104, while Oregon has implied odds of +104. It really can’t get much more even than that, and this game will truly be a toss up between two of the best in the nation.
So, based on 10,000 simulations for each game going through the entire bracket, the model likes Georgia to come out on top. Right now at BetMGM, you can find the Bulldogs at +400 odds to win the title.
Get up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets at BetMGM! All you need to do is CLICK HERE, sign up for a new account, make your first deposit and bet! Don’t miss out!
Related
