Per odds released Tuesday by Bookies, Tarik Skubal is most likely to end this season with the Orioles. After that, the Dodgers. And then the Tigers, who are getting offers for Skubal ahead of the July 30 trade deadline. But don't bet on Skubal getting dealt: not a single MLB executive recently surveyed by ESPN believes the Tigers will do it.
"Any hope of acquiring him would require the sort of overpay almost no one is willing to consider," per ESPN's Jeff Passan.
It's much more likely that the Tigers trade fellow starting pitcher Jack Flaherty, a pending free agent having one of the best seasons of his career. For Detroit to move him, says Passan, "the offer must be stronger than what the Tigers could get with a draft pick in the early 30s," which they'd be awarded in next year's draft if Flaherty signs elsewhere this offseason for at least $50 million.
The Orioles are the one team with enough elite hitting prospects to get the Tigers attention about a deal for Skubal. MLB insider Joel Sherman proposed the following trade on Tuesday, a week from the deadline:
The Tigers send Skubal and reliever Jason Foley to the Orioles for the No. 1 overall prospect in baseball shortstop Jackson Holliday and a former top-50 prospect in outfielder Heston Kjerstad. Holliday is in Triple-A, while Kjerstad has split time between Triple-A and the majors this season. Both could play for the Tigers tomorrow.
Would that be enough for the Tigers to give up a Cy Young favorite who's under team control for 2.5 more seasons (plus one of their better relievers)? It doesn't feel like an "overpay," which means they probably wouldn't say yes. They would need "an offer that is simply absurd and that you have to accept," as MLB insider Jon Morosi put it last week on 97.1 The Ticket.
"And if it’s south of that," said Morosi, "don’t even worry about it. Just say, ‘Hey guys, I can only trade this player if you come to me with an absolutely incredible offer."
The Orioles, per ESPN, are also willing to consider trading some of their established players in the majors like first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, 27, and centerfielder Cedric Mullens, 29. But their respective numbers are trending in the wrong direction. The Tigers likely wouldn't be all that interested.
If Skubal's on the table, so is anyone and everyone for the O's.