It will take a Godfather-type offer for the Tigers to trade Tarik Skubal. Will the Orioles or Dodgers make one?
"I think they are going to come up with compelling offers," MLB insider Jon Morosi said Thursday on 97.1 The Ticket. "Whether it’s actually been submitted now or it’s going to get closer to the deadline, I do believe they are going to try. And I think that Scott Harris is in a position where he’ll have to listen."
Skubal has been the best pitcher in baseball this season and is under team control for two more years after this one. Harris is not inclined to trade him, but the Orioles and Dodgers are motivated to come get him. The Orioles, in particular, have the type of high-level offensive prospects to get the Tigers' attention ahead of the July 30th trade deadline. Harris will be seeking a package of position players that dramatically alters the Tigers' future.
"It will be a very difficult choice," said Morosi. "But in some ways, I would say that it is an easy hard decision: The only way that you go down the path of potentially moving Tarik Skubal is if the Dodgers or the Orioles or some other team comes to you with an offer that is simply absurd and that you have to accept. And if it’s south of that, don’t even worry about it. Just say, ‘Hey guys, I can only trade this player if you come to me with an absolutely incredible offer."
The Orioles have three top-15 prospects, per MLB Pipeline, in SS Jackson Holliday, C/1B Sammy Basallo and 3B/1B Coby Mayo, plus another recently-graduated top-20 prospect in OF Colton Cowser. Any conversation about Skubal that's worth the Tigers' time starts with at least two of these players, said Morosi:
"For the Tigers to be really compelled to move Skubal to Baltimore, it would have to be two of the four of Holliday, Colton Cowser, Mayo, Basallo, that kind of a conversation. You’d have to get two from that group. If you want to add in any of their younger players, I would doubt that Jordan Westburg would at all be an option there. Heston Kjerstad, maybe you would add his name to that conversation, too. It would have to be multiple of the group of players that I just mentioned."
In other words, "similar to what the Nationals got for Juan Soto.’"
The Nationals traded Soto at the 2022 deadline when he, too, had 2.5 years of team control remaining for a package of elite prospects from the Padres that now features an All-Star shortstop in C.J. Abrams, "an All-Star-caliber starting pitcher in MacKenzie Gore and someone in my judgment who is undeniably a future All-Star in (outfielder) James Wood," said Morosi. "That’s 2.5 All-Stars. That was the standard for Juan Soto."
For those who say that Skubal, 27, isn't nearly as accomplished as Soto was at the time of the trade -- and that Soto was moved at the age of 22 -- Morosi counters that "pitching right now is so important that you can price it a little bit higher." This is especially true in regard to the Orioles and Dodgers.
"We’re at a time in the industry where there’s so much injured pitching out there, especially for a team like the Dodgers, that you can put a little bit of a tax on it. In Baltimore’s case, they have so many great young position players, but they need a Tarik Skubal. The Dodgers, look at how many injured starters they have, they need a Tarik Skubal.
"So price him like Juan Soto was priced and see if someone meets it. And if they don’t, move on to the offseason and see if there’s a better package at that point. Or just ride it out and say, ‘I believe we're going to be a more competitive team in '25 and ’26, so if you want to buy me out of having Tarik Skubal in those years, c’mon, bring it. And if you fall short, we move on.’"
There's another piece to this conversation that looms over the Tigers' future. If the return in a potential Skubal trade includes a player who could be a first baseman like Basallo, Mayo or Dodgers prospect Dalton Rushing, "it tells you a lot about how the Tigers feel about Torkelson," Morosi said.
"And to me, the fact that Torkelson is not back (in Detroit) yet, and the fact that he has not destroyed Triple-A pitching yet, says a lot about where they’re at at the moment. If I’m just looking at it objectively, the way Torkelson has played this year both in the majors and in the minors, has told me that if any of these conversations (include Rushing, Mayo or Basallo) then Torkelson no longer has a firm claim on being the first baseman of the future for the Tigers for the next three years," said Morosi.