That headline is most certainly meant to be taken literally. Major League hitters are being hit by pitches more than at any time in the game's history and with today's explosion of high-velocity pitchers regularly working in the high 90's the damage being done is a significant problem for MLB to tackle.
In just the last few days we've had scary examples of this:
Kevin Pillar last night:
Corey Seager over the weekend:
Of course, we can't forget what we saw with Genesis Cabrera hitting Bryce Harper:
These are just a few recent examples but the numbers that are piling up is getting to be a problem.
As Tom Verducci has pointed out, the numbers aren't looking good. Here's a look from 10,000 feet at a trend MLB is going to need to get a handle on...
Since 2020 was a 60-game season and 2021 is only at the quarter-pole, we have to project what the full-season HBP totals would be based on the per-game pace.
In 2021 pitchers are on pace to hit approximately 2,220 batters, just a little bit higher than the 2020 pace that would have been a record. So we're at the peak of the trend with the arrow still pointing up in 2021.
Take a look at the last 10 seasons:
2021 - approximatly 2,200 (pace)
2020 - approximatly 2,200 (pace)
2019 - 1,984
2018 - 1,922
2017 - 1,763
2016 - 1,651
2015 - 1,602
2014 - 1,652
2013 - 1,536
2012 - 1,493
In 10 years, MLB is on pace to be up more than 700 HBP per season. That's a 47% increase! In just 10 years!
What about before that, what was it like in different times?
20 seasons ago (2002) - 1,746
25 seasons ago (1997) - 1,449
How about the Year of the Pitcher in 1968, back in the day when pitchers had the reputation of being gunslingers who would drill anyone, anywhere, anytime? Prorated over a full schedule the equivalent of a 162 game schedule with 30 teams the pace would have been about an 1100 HBP (the actual number was 778).
Related
So why is this happening? Here are some reasonable explanations, in no particular order:
Pitchers are instructed to pitch up in the zone more
This doesn't necessarily explain the sheer number of HBP by itself but it explains all the dangerous pitches near the heads of hitters.
High velocity is more in demand than control
The modern style of attacking hitters with high fastballs is much easier to execute when a pitcher throws hard.
There are more "max effort" pitchers
As a result of the emphasis placed on velocity by teams, more players are pitching at max effort and quite often max effort comes at the expense of better command.
The stop watch
Hitters have less time to react and get out of the way because of the increased velocity around MLB.
Body armor
With all the padded protection hitters have in the modern game there is an argument to be made that they're at least partially at fault here. There may be a false sense of security when hitters have the extra protection so they lean out over the plate more (looking to do damage) and therefore don't get out of the way as well as they used to.
Hitters' approach
Even the hitters who don't wear body armor seem to lean out over the plate more than hitters used to because of the emphasis on damage.
Those all contributing factors and none of them alone is responsible for the increase in HBP.
So, how does Major League Baseball fix this?
The truth is, they probably can't. Sure, MLB could work with the MLB Players Association on stricter punishments for hitting batters near the head (kind of like the NFL's targeting rules) whether it was intentional or not but that's not likely to happen mid-season and I'm pretty sure the MLBPA wouldn't want their members fined and/or suspended for accidental beanings.
Seems like this problem is here to stay for the foreseeable future.
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