Tom Brady and the Buccaneers came out on top of the football world when it was all said and done last season -- but they didn't get there by winning the NFC South.
Tampa is a trendy pick to be the NFL's first repeat Super Bowl winners since Brady did it early in his career with the Patriots, but in fact it's the Saints who are the reigning division champions.
New Orleans again looks like a strong team, but they have challenges both on and off the field that could make the early portion of the season in particular especially tricky.
The Panthers and Falcons both slumped last year, but they both also made some bold moves in response. The Panthers, under second-year coach Matt Rhule, made a change under center -- and perhaps more importantly get back one of the game's best running backs in Christian McCaffrey, who was sidelined by injury for most of 2020. The Falcons brought in new leadership at GM and head coach, and drafted a potential generational offensive talent in tight end Kyle Pitts.
Here's a closer look at those storylines and more what to watch for in the intriguing NFC South:
New Orleans Saints
Biggest storyline heading into the season?
If you’d asked me a week ago, the answer would’ve undoubtedly been Jameis Winston. Have the Saints really managed to land a No. 1 overall pick that can turn a year behind Drew Brees into a turnaround story rarely seen in the NFL? It still might be the biggest story if things go a certain way, but it’s hard to land there after the events of this week. Suddenly we’ve got a New Orleans NFL team with its home base in Fort Worth. They’re hosting a home game in Jacksonville. With all the other hurdles this team is facing, the absences of WR Michael Thomas, DT David Onyemata and K Wil Lutz for a good chunk of the season, turnover at other key positions and a new QB era … is the team’s culture really strong enough to turn this into a winner? At some point the mountain becomes too steep to climb. My record prediction going in was 11-6, and no local media member surveyed was more optimistic. Can this team defy all the odds and obstacles and win a 5th straight NFC South title … in a division that features Tom Brady and the juggernaut Bucs? We’ll see. But one way or another the way the Saints handle those challenges will be the story of the season.
Who or what will be the X-factor?
It’d be easy to say Jameis Winston here, but he needs to be effective -- or at the very least smart with the ball -- for this team to have a chance. The X-factor will be the interior defensive line. This Saints defense has been able to stifle opponents due in large part to an interior defensive line that crushes any hopes of a pounding running game before it begins. They’ve tackled well and played the run on the way to the QB as well as any team I’ve seen. But they lost Sheldon Rankins and Malcom Brown in free agency, and David Onyemata is out 6 games. Who steps up to fill that void? Shy Tuttle? Malcolm Roach? Josiah Bronson? Montravius Adams? Not exactly household names. If the team can continue to shut down opposing rushing attacks and controls the ball on offense, they’ll have a chance. Those interior lineman will need to show up, because they’ll get tested early and often.
The Saints will make the playoffs if ...
Jameis Winston threads the big-play needle the way he did in the preseason performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars that appeared to truly win himself the job. He needs to take maximum advantage of Alvin Kamara, keep turnovers low, and take advantage of shot plays downfield. While Marquez Callaway opened eyes in the preseason, teams likely will make him prove he can do it in a game before they stop loading up the box to stop Kamara, the lone established offensive weapon at Winston’s disposal. Can he show he’s turned a corner in the decisions department, take advantage of big-play opportunities and, when they don’t hit, make sure to put his defense in a good position to stifle opponents in their own right? If he can play complementary football, this team has a chance to push the Bucs and/or slide into a wild card spot.
The Saints will miss the playoffs if ...
Even if Winston has middling results in the TO department, this team has strong enough play along both the offensive and defensive lines to be a playoff-caliber team. But what they don’t have is depth. They’ve managed to make the playoffs the past two seasons with significant and lingering injuries to both Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. Somehow the Saints managed to go 8-1 in 9 games without Drew Brees the last two years. With personnel losses driven, in part, by a COVID-crushed salary cap, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to overcome even moderately bad injury luck. That’s the risk you run when you have to shed depth, and it could prove to be the undoing of the Saints’ playoff hopes this season. -- Jeff Nowak, WWL
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Biggest storyline heading into the season?
The Buccaneers' attempt to repeat as Super Bowl Champions is an obvious storyline, but perhaps even more intriguing is just how good this roster has a chance to be in their second season together. Tom Brady’s first season in Tampa Bay may have ended with him raising his seventh Lombardi Trophy, but the regular season felt like a struggle at times. With one of the five best rosters in football and more time in Bruce Arians’ system, will the Buccaneers be able to land the No. 1 seed in the NFC in 2021?
Who will be the X-factor?
You have to acknowledge that Tom Brady is 44 years old, and even if it seems like he’s going to be playing at a high level for forever, eventually he won’t. Frankly, though, we’re retired from trying to predict when the three-time NFL MVP will fall off -- we’ll assume he’s going to be great until he proves otherwise.
The Bucs will make the playoffs if ...
Brady continues to gel in his second season paired with Bruce Arians -- and given that he has Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown among the weapons at his disposal, there is no reason to think that he won’t. Also, the Bucs have a pretty special defensive unit led by Devin White.
The Bucs will miss the playoffs if ...
Tampa Bay will miss the playoffs if Tom Brady finally starts to look like someone who is in his mid-40s, and both the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers are playoff-caliber teams in 2021. But while it’s not impossible someone other than Tampa Bay wins the NFC South, them altogether missing the playoffs would be shocking. -- Tim Kelly, Audacy Sports
Atlanta Falcons
Biggest storyline heading into the season?
It has to be whether the offensive line will be able to protect Matt Ryan, who was sacked 41 times in 2020. To put it in perspective, Ryan has been sacked 40-plus times for three consecutive years. Head coach Arthur Smith has had a lot of success as a play-caller in this league, but if they can’t keep Matt Ryan upright, it is going to be more of the same for the Atlanta Falcons in 2021.
Who or what will be the X-factor?
The Falcons have traditionally not been able to sack the quarterback. Last year they only put the quarterback down 29 times, which puts them in the bottom half of the league. With the Falcons needing more pressure up front, the man calling plays on defense, Dean Pees, will be an X-factor because he doesn’t mind manufacturing pressure. With no pure pass-rushers on the roster, the Falcons are going to need all of the manufacturing they can get.
The Falcons will make the playoffs if ...
Matt Ryan is able to put this offense on his back and have an MVP-type year under center. In 2016 Ryan was surgical under the tutelage of then-offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. Ryan has always had the most success when he has been upright and not having to throw the football between 40 and 50 times a game.
The Falcons will miss the playoffs if ...
They aren’t able to put pressure on the opposing team’s quarterback. The Falcons can’t be near the bottom of the league in sacks this year if they want to make it back to the playoffs. They play quite a few teams that have young starters at the quarterback position. The easiest way to lose those games is to allow those young guys to sit back and read a newspaper in the pocket for 60 minutes. -- Jarvis Davis, WZGC
Carolina Panthers
Biggest storyline heading into the season?
Honestly, it’s “what will this team look like?” They have a new potential franchise QB, but the offensive line is a wide-open competition, the secondary could be a mess, and their franchise player is coming back off a lost season with a new signal caller. Rhule has his work cut out for him, as some may describe Carolina’s off-season as “reshuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic.”
Who or what will be the X-factor?
McCaffrey. As perhaps the best back in the NFL goes, so, too, go the Panthers. It’s tempting to say Darnold here, but you give a quarterback learning a new offense some benefit – and a healthy, productive McCaffrey will take a lot of the load off.
The Panthers will make the playoffs if ...
McCaffrey is back to being himself, the offensive line comes together, the defense improves, and Darnold shows he is a franchise QB whose first few years were wasted in New York.
The Panthers will miss the playoffs if ...
McCaffrey isn’t himself, any of the question marks don’t clear up, Darnold is basically a less-mobile Teddy Bridgewater in the Matt Rhule offense. Or, if Jameis Winston goes ham in New Orleans, because Atlanta should be better, too, and there are only three wild card spots. -- Lou DiPietro, WFAN
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