We are in full swing of the 2021 NCAA conference tournament week. Most major conference tournaments get underway on Wednesday and there will be a wide array of bets to make.
Here are three bets that stuck out to me for the first round:
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Georgetown (+3, 144) vs. Marquette - 3 PM EST
Both of these teams come in playing better ball than their record. Marquette has won four of five and Georgetown has taken four of their last six.
However, I’m going to side with the Hoyas catching a few points.
On the perimeter, Georgetown has reliable three-point threats in Chudier Bile and Jamorko Pickett to help keep Marquette's defense honest. As a team, Patrick Ewing’s club is shooting over 37% from deep in conference play.
While their ability to stroke it from deep will be critical, Georgetown has the size down low with 6’11” big man Qudus Wahab to create second chance opportunities. The Hoyas are second in the Big East in offensive rebounding rate.
Neither team is going to turn the other over, both are in the basement of the conference in opponent turnover rate, but Maruqette isn’t going to be able to match the Hoyas from deep. The team is shooting below 32% from three-point land. This could become a math problem.
While late-game situations have been a trapeze act for Georgetown this season -- including squandering a 15-point lead with under 10 minutes late at home to this same Marquette team in January -- I expect them to hold strong at Madison Square Garden and stay within the number.
Pick: Georgetown +3, play to +2
Washington (+8, 144.5) vs Utah - 7 PM EST
I know, this isn’t pretty, but I think Washington can keep this one in striking distance.
The market has no trust in Mike Hopkins’ Huskies, and rightfully so. The team is a dreadful 5-20, but they've quietly covered in five of their last seven games, including a one-point road loss to Arizona catching 14.5.
A key for Washington to stay close is to avoid fast break opportunities the other way so they can set their zone defense up. Utah plays at a slow pace to begin with, 223rd in adjusted tempo, and is turning their opponents over 18% of possessions in conference play, which is in the bottom half of the league.
The Huskies are going to need to hit on their three-point attempts to have a chance. Utah is allowing teams to shoot over 37% from beyond the arc in conference play, and Washington will need to find Jamal Bey, who is shooting over 50% from three this season.
The Huskies were able to knock off the Utes at home this season and I think we may be catching an inflated number due to the Utes dominant 39-point win last Saturday.
Pick: Washington +8, play to +7.5
Vanderbilt (-1, 132) vs. Texas A&M - 7 PM EST
The season is winding down, and a majority of teams playing on Wednesday are already looking ahead to the offseason. Motivation can play a factor in these types of games for clubs looking to end on a high note.
While Texas A&M is trying to finish strong after missing the whole month of February due to COVID-19 protocols, Vanderbilt is making real progress.
Vandy has split their last four games and stayed close with the likes of Alabama and Tennessee in the month of February. The team’s 8-15 record is not indicative of their play over the past month.
Vandy guard Scotty Pippen Jr. will be the best player on the floor on Wednesday and I expect him to be in control of this one.
I’m hopeful that Pippen will be good to go after he was limited in the Commodores final game of the regular season on Saturday, a 56-46 loss to Ole Miss. Pippen only played 19 minutes as he battled a nagging hip injury, but coach Jerry Stackhouse hinted that he sat out with the SEC Tournament in mind.
Texas A&M's defense is predicated on forcing turnovers, but also their aggressive defense leads to a ton of open three-point shots. With Pippen running point, I expect Vandy to limit sloppy turnovers and also get their shots up. A&M is 344th nationally in defensive three-point rate while Stackhouse's team ranks inside the top 20 in the same metric on offense. To that point, Vanderbilt has the second best three-point percentage in SEC play.
If the ‘Dores are hitting their shots and Pippen is healthy, they should take care of business and continue to build some momentum towards the future.
Pick: Vanderbilt -1, play to -2
Reed is a native of New Jersey and graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is a die-hard Brooklyn Nets fan and always believes the spread has a chance of covering. You can follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach for more commentary.