A LOT has happened since Kansas City won the Super Bowl last February, but we’ve finally made it to the 2020-21 NFL Playoffs. With Wild Card Weekend set to kick off, we ran BetQL’s model simulations to project every team’s chances of winning the Lombardi Trophy.
Does the model like the Chiefs’ chances of repeating as league champs? Of course it does, but teams like Kansas City are going to be fan favorites. More importantly, the question is, does betting on the Chiefs give you the best value for your buck when betting Super Bowl futures?
To try to identify some teams that stick out, I dug into the model’s projections to compare its Super Bowl Win % against DraftKings Sportsbook’s Implied odds of winning it all.
Teams that stand out:
Green Bay Packers (BetQL Projection: 19%)
The Packers head into the playoffs with a full head of steam after giving the Chicago Bears a 35-16 beatdown last weekend. Green Bay not only won the NFC North for the second consecutive season, but also secured the valuable bye week they desired.
The Packers are led by MVP (should be a done deal) QB Aaron Rodgers and look like the team that has the best chance to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LV.
DraftKings currently lists the Packers with a 15.7 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl. Our model has Green Bay winning 19 percent of the time, which means there is value on the Packers at +450.
Seattle Seahawks (BetQL Projection: 6.6%)
If there is one thing I’ve learned over the past few years, it is to never count out Russell Wilson. As was the case this season, no matter the situation, Russ always seems to cook. This year’s Seattle team started the year with a bad defense and dealt with injuries, but Wilson still catapulted the ‘Hawks to the NFC West crown.
Winning the division now allows Seattle to play their first playoff game at home this season. While home teams were only 128-127-1 this season, the Seahawks went 7-1 at home.
Seattle’s pass defense has quietly gotten better over the last quarter of the season, so just another area to keep an eye on. If they can get past their division foe in the Rams, Wilson and Rodgers seem headed for a collision course, which would be fun to watch.
DraftKings has the Seahawks with a 5.8 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl, while our model has Seattle winning 6.6 percent of the time. Betting on them to win it all at +1400 provides some upside here.
Pittsburgh Steelers (BetQL Projection: 6.5%)
The Steelers have cooled off since their red-hot start to the season, but they are still going to be a tough out this postseason. While Pittsburgh’s offense has sputtered down the stretch, their defense remains one of the best in the league, ranking No. 1 in Defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders.
The Steelers also have an edge in their first playoff game against the Cleveland Browns who have been ravaged by COVID-19.
As for experience, the Steelers have a coach and a QB who have won it all before, in Mike Tomlin and Big Ben, respectively.
DraftKings lists the Steelers with a 4.6 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl. Our model has Pittsburgh winning 6.5 percent of the time, which makes them undervalued at 18-1 heading into the postseason.
BetQL has hit 65% of all bets in Ben Roethlisberger starts over the last two seasons. The BetQL model will have picks for every side and total during NFL playoffs. Sign up with BetQL today and become a better bettor!
Lottery tickets:
If you are feeling frisky, here are a couple of longshots that our model projects to outperform their implied probabilities: Rams, Indianapolis Colts, WFT, and Chicago Bears.
In a year that can only be described as crazy, you never know. If one of these four teams can pull an upset this weekend, they might be on their way.
Full Bet QL Model results:
Kansas City Chiefs
Odds: +225
Implied Probability: 26.6%
BetQL Projection: 25.7%
Green Bay Packers
Odds: +450
Implied Probability: 15.7%
BetQL Projection: 19%
Buffalo Bills
Odds: +700
Implied Probability: 10.8%
BetQL Projection: 7%
New Orleans Saints
Odds: +750
Implied Probability: 10.2%
BetQL Projection: 5.1%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Odds: +1000
Implied Probability: 7.9%
BetQL Projection: 6%
Baltimore Ravens
Odds: +1100
Implied Probability: 7.2%
BetQL Projection: 5.9%
Seattle Seahawks
Odds: +1400
Implied Probability: 5.8%
BetQL Projection: 6.6%
Pittsburgh Steelers
Odds: +1800
Implied Probability: 4.6%
BetQL Projection: 6.5%
Tennessee Titans
Odds: +2800
Implied Probability: 3%
BetQL Projection: 2.4%
Los Angeles Rams
Odds: +3000
Implied Probability: 2.8%
BetQL Projection: 3.9%
Indianapolis Colts
Odds: +4000
Implied Probability: 2.1%
BetQL Projection: 3.4%
Cleveland Browns
Odds: +5000
Implied Probability: 1.7%
BetQL Projection: 3.2%
Washington Football Team (WFT)
Odds: +10000
Implied Probability: .9%
BetQL Projection: 2.1%
Chicago Bears
Odds: +10000
Implied Probability: .9%
BetQL Projection: 3.1%