If July has been any sort of indication, the race for the NL East crown will be the most interesting chase to watch in Major League Baseball. At one point this season, the New York Mets looked to be running away with it, leading by as many as 10.5 games. That number has since dwindled to a mere 2.0 games due to a streaking Braves team that has won an MLB-best 33 games since June 1st.
With no indication that either of these squads will slow down any time soon, how many wins will it take to win the division? Beau Morgan and Chris Thomas discussed on Saturday night:
"I think it's right around 100," Chris started. "I think the Mets are pretty reliant on what happens with Jacob DeGrom. If he comes back and he's DeGrom, then they'll be neck and neck the rest of the way. If he doesn't, I think the Braves have a great chance to leapfrog (the Mets) and put a stranglehold on the division."
As baseball approaches the All-Star break, we have an adequate snapshot to project what could transpire over the course of a season. Taking both teams' current winning-percentage and spreading that over the course of 162 games, the Mets would finish with 101 wins and the Braves with 97.
Beau came in a hair under Chris in his projection. "98 wins," he said. "I think the Braves are playing from behind they got off to a crappy start and the Mets got off to an amazing start, but the Mets were never going to continue to play .700 ball like they did over the first month."
This is not the 2021 National League East. Yes, it produced the world champion Atlanta Braves, but it only took a pedestrian 88 wins to get there. That certainly won't get it done in 2022. In fact, that win total would barely edge the projected third-place Philadelphia Phillies (85 wins).
