Prior to this season, plenty of analysts and football pundits ranked the Atlanta Falcons as one of the worst teams in the NFL from a roster standpoint. With the halfway point of the 2022-23 campaign upon us, it’s safe to say that the Falcons have killed all that noise from the doubters.
After starting the season with back-to-back losses at home vs New Orleans and on the road vs the Rams, the team has won four of the last six games and sit at 4-4 which is good enough for the lead in the NFC South and, glancing at the remainder of the teams’ schedule, seem self-assured that a spot in the postseason is within their sights with a 36% chance to make the playoffs after eight weeks.
The trade of QB Matt Ryan to the Colts, the subsequent acquisition of Marcus Mariota and a roster of unproven offensive skill players indicated that there would be some uncertainty about the effectiveness of coach Arthur Smith’s system. From his time in Tennessee with the Titans and having the luxury of a Derek Henry-led backfield, it was evident that success in the run game was going to be a priority for the game plan. Despite leading rusher Cordarrelle Patterson being sidelined for the past few weeks due to injury, the Falcons still rank in the top-5 in the league in rushing thanks to the mobility of Mariota and the emergence of rookie Tyler Allgeier and contributions from Caleb Huntley.
While the explosive plays in the passing game have been few and far between, the offense still has been successful enough to average 25.0 points/game, good enough to be tied for 6th in the NFL and a generous increase compared to the 18.0 points/game averaged last season. While the passing yards/game is down slightly compared to 2021-22, the rushing numbers have skyrocketed from a league worst 85.0 yards/game last year to an impressive 158.1 yards/game this season.
Looking at the rest of the schedule, the Falcons remaining opponents have a combined record of 29-42 going into this week. Outside of the disappointing performance against the Bengals in week 7, the losses the Falcons have suffered have come within an average of 3.6 points. The margin of victory isn’t that high but it is an indicator that the team knows how to play all four quarters and is able to close out some of the tighter contests.
Despite an overall home record of 18-25 since the team moved to Mercedes Benz Stadium in 2017, the Falcons are off to a 3-1 start at home this season and, with five of the last nine games on the schedule in the friendly confines off of Northside Dr., that could be a huge advantage as they look to stay on top of the hill in the division. With road games at a struggling Carolina, Washington with a lackluster offense and the get-back game in New Orleans, the Falcons can definitely find themselves looking at a 9 or 10-win season and a trip back to the postseason for the first time since 2017.
