PITTSBURGH (93.7 the Fan) I had been thinking that projecting the Penguins protected list would be fairly simple. Not easy - since there are some difficult decisions to be made – but the choices seemed pretty straightforward.
However, after sitting on this for 7 weeks and not really thinking about it, I've changed my kind on a few things. Since we can be fairly sure the Pens will use the 7-forward, 3-defensemen, 1 goaltender model – here is what I would do.
No Brainers
Sidney Crosby: No Movement Clause; must be protected
Evgeni Malkin: No Movement Clause; must be protected
Jake Guentzel: 23 goals 57 pts 56 games
Bryan Rust: Most versatile winger; 22 goals 3rd on team
Kasperi Kapanen: Even faster than Rust and almost as versatile
Kris Letang: No Movement Clause; must be protected
Brian Dumoulin: Best defender; quiet team leader; locker room DJ
Some might dispute Kapanen as a "no-brainer" but his speed is elite and he's still just 25 years old which is about the time that the speedy Rust started to find his scoring touch.
This leaves room for 2 forwards, 1 defenseman and a goalie. Forward is by far the toughest call, since the Penguins will have to expose 3 players they would like to keep. Here are the two I'm keeping.
Teddy Blueger Projects as a solid third-line center which is what he will have to be until Malkin returns from knee surgery; another developing forward who should start to score more. Great penalty-killer which at least still matters in the regular season.
Brandon Tanev Management may be tempted to expose him at an advancing age with a big contract but the contract wouldn't prevent Seattle from taking him and he doesn't show signs of playing "old." Tanev is the kind of player teams like the Penguins need.
Normally, I might be reluctant to expose Jeff Carter who was magnificent after coming over from the Kings but Carter had said he'd never leave LA and only did because of Ron Hextall. All Carter's agent has to do is quietly inform Seattle GM Ron Francis that Carter isn't interested in playing his final season for an expansion team and he will be safe.
The Kraken, then, will be left with a choice between the mercurial Jared McCann and veteran Jason Zucker. McCann finally started scoring some goals and had good chemistry with Carter but his inconsistency can be maddening. Zucker has underachieved since coming to Pittsburgh, in part because of bad luck, but he was the Pens best player in the elimination game and has guts. It's not known which player Seattle favors.
However, maybe Francis would be tempted to take a defenseman if the Penguins do what I would do. I would protect Cody Ceci, even though he is an unrestricted free agent.
We all expect the Pens to protect either Mike Matheson or Marcus Pettersson. Matheson is brilliant offensively and also formed an effective pair with Ceci but if /when Ceci leaves there is no guarantee Matheson will mesh with John Marino who is coming off a tough sophomore season. Of course, Marino's slight regression could have had something to do with Pettersson's disappointing play.
Either way, if Seattle were to take Matheson or Pettersson, Pierre-Olivier Joseph should be ready to step up on the left side. The Penguins have little depth on the right side and should they lose either Matheson's or Pettersson's salary they might be able to coax Ceci to stay. Marino, by the way, is exempt because he hasn't been in the NHL long enough.
As for the goaltenders, I honestly don't think Seattle will take either one so I would protect me fellow New Hampshireman Casey DeSmith. We UNH guys have to stick together! Plus, I'm not sold on Tristan Jarry after the Islanders meltdown. Exposing Jarry might tempt the Kraken to select him and leave the Pens' skaters intact but, like I said, I really don't think that matters.
