Hello, draft friends. We are nearly two months away from the NFL Draft. With the NFL Scouting Combine starting next week, it’s worth looking at where things stand before there are some measurables. This is the period in which there are clear risers and fallers thanks to athletic testing. While teams have their own on-field, in-game data, these measurables still matter, as do, crucially, the meetings held with players and their representatives in Indianapolis.
So before all that gets underway, lets take a look at who the 49ers should or could draft. This will be a rare, no-trade draft, though that doesn’t mean the 49ers will just stand pat in the draft.
As a recap, here are the 49ers’ expected, but not set-in-stone selections. The NFL usually announces the official compensatory designations in mid-March:
Round 1, Pick 11
Round 2, Pick 43
Round 3, Pick 75
Round 3, Pick 99 (compensatory - Ran Carthon/DeMeco Ryans)
Round 4, Pick 112
Round 4, Pick 138 (compensatory - Chase Young)
Round 4, Pick 139 (compensatory - Sam Darnold)
FORFEITED (punishment for accounting error) - Round 5, Pick 149
Round 6, Pick 189
Round 7, Pick 228 (from Zane Gonzalez trade)
Round 7, Pick 232
Round 7, Pick 255 (Ray-Ray McCloud)
Some of those selections may change, but we’re proceeding with that as the draft slate for now.
Round 1, Pick 11: Armand Membou, OL, Missouri
If you want a player who makes the most sense for the 49ers in the immediate term, long term, and who maximizes the equation of drafting for need, quality and positional value, it’s Armand Membou. And this is before the NFL Combine, where the 6-foot-4-inch, 320-pound tackle/guard from Missouri is likely going to test incredibly well.
He is a physically imposing prospect with length, strength, and the athleticism that is requisite for any 49ers offensive linemen to get out in space. He’s faced high-level competition in the SEC and performed very well.
Membou is less of a project than will be the narrative, but he absolutely has work to do to become a quality tackle in the NFL. But that’s why this fit is stellar. He would get to start at left guard next to Trent Williams and learn from Williams, to one day become his successor. He needs to work on hand placement in both the run and pass game, re-setting against counter moves, and having better eye discipline on picking up loopers and late-oncoming rushers.
There are other tackle options, with the best talent (in my view) being Ohio State’s Josh Simmons. Will Campbell is another option, a technician in the pass protection game (I'm not sold on Kelvin Banks). You could absolutely go that route, but it wouldn’t be filling an immediate need unless you move Colton McKivitz — the team's most consistent offensive linemen last season — to guard. If you add Membou, you get an offensive line with only a question at center.
Now, this would be a departure of philosophy. They drafted McKivitz in the fifth round and have only spent picks on offensive linemen in the first two rounds twice, on Notre Dame's Mike McGlinchey (No. 9 overall) and Aaron Banks (No. 65 overall). Last year, offensive line coach/run game coordinator Chris Foerster said he prefers not drafting offensive linemen in the first round.
Fair. You could make a case for Penn State tight end Tyler Warren or Georgia safety Malaki Starks, but the positional value there is shaky at best. Mike Green out of Marshall is probably the second-best edge rusher in this class, and Mykel Williams is another option if you want to go that route. Same with Ole Miss defensive tackle Walter Nolen, or corner Will Johnson.
But it’s relatively deep defensive line and corner class, and as is often the case, it’s a top-heavy tackle class in my view. If you were to learn anything from last season, it's to invest in the trenches. Membou gets you immediately upgraded Brock Purdy protection with huge run game upside and a future at left or right tackle (I think he looks better on the left, where Missouri would sometimes slide him in the red zone).
Round 2, Pick 43: Princely Umanmielen, EDGE, Ole Miss
(Alternative if available: Trey Amos, CB, Ole Miss)
My heart wants to go with Trey Amos, the Ole Miss corner who transferred from Alabama. He is an absolutely perfect Cover-3 corner with length, speed, movement fluidity, physicality, and the understanding of the position and where his help is. It’s just astounding to watch. But I think he’s CB3 in this draft behind Travis Hunter and Michigan’s Will Johnson and will be gone in round one.
So, where do the 49ers turn? To his Ole Miss teammate, Princely Umanmielen (ooh-mon-MEE-ell-in). He is probably the third best pass-rushing edge in this class behind Abdul Carter and Green. You can go with just about anyone on the Ole Miss defense, and it’s a travesty — of which Jaxson Dart is mostly to blame — that they were not in the College Football Playoff.
Umanmielen is twitchy, bendy, and much stronger than you’d expect with his listed, 6-foot-5-inch, 255-pound frame. He's lean, and can surprise you with his power and use a ton of length, agility and speed to get to the quarterback with a variety of moves. The top of that list is a nasty spin counter if his initial swipe and bend or power don’t work. He has enough strength to develop in the run game, but profiles as a potentially elite pass rusher.
For the 49ers, the question is whether they want someone who is immediately well-rounded, or someone to wreak havoc in the pass game. Having Sam Okuayinonu will help with setting the edge.
That calculus may also depend on whether they keep both Leonard Floyd and Yetur Gross-Matos, but Umanmielen’s physical traits and deep bag of pass rush moves are going to make him hard to pass up here. A group of him, Nick Bosa, Okuayinonu, Floyd, and a pass-rushing-oriented defensive tackle could be a consistent havoc-wreaking pass rushing package.
Round 3, Pick 75: Andrew Mukuba, S, Texas
Ji’Ayir Brown isn’t out of a job, but the 49ers need to prepare like he’s not an option at safety. He was woeful last year and looked like he was overthinking things. His angles in the run game were worrisome. As it stands, they have Malik Mustapha, and that’s about all they can count on. They’re going to want to keep building on their young secondary, and Mukuba is a guy that might be able to play that center-fielding free safety role and let Mustapha roam.
His coverage instincts are stellar. He understands route concepts and how formations set up offenses to attack coverages, and leverages that against the offense. He was a real problem for Georgia in their matchups, and his five interceptions were tied for fourth in the nation.
Mukuba’s main downside is that he’s not very large. He’s a lean safety who might not weigh 200 pounds. He packs much more of a punch for that thin frame, but he’s going to need to add weight at the NFL level.
Round 3, Pick 99: Aeneas Peebles, DT, Virginia Tech
If you want a one-for-one Javon Hargrave replacement, this is your guy. I say “if,” because that might not be the type of player that actually works for the 49ers anymore.
There are, in my view, guys who shoot their gap and guys who hold their gap. You can have the ability to do both, but it’s about tendency. Peebles, like Hargrave, and as most of the 49ers’ defensive tackles are coached to do, shoot their gap. They want to get upfield, and attack as if Kris Kocurek is screaming at them to do just that.
But in the run game, that gets exploited. It’s easy for guards to wall off defensive tackles who are trying their hardest to get upfield immediately, and it puts a ton on the 49ers’ linebackers to fill. That was a glaring issues last year without Dre Greenlaw.
Peebles is a guy who is a constant disruptor with a stout frame, plus athletic wiggle on top of it. Like Hargrave, he might be a better fit as a pass-rushing nose in a three- or five-down defense. But the 49ers have historically liked guys with burst and the desire to attack the pocket. Peebles has those qualities in spades. I’m just not sold that he will maintain his gap or be able to two-gap with any sort of consistency or discipline. He’s certainly enticing and talented, just maybe not the right fit for how the 49ers need to evolve.
Round 4, Pick 112: Cobee Bryant, CB, Kansas
The 49ers were incredibly deep at corner, but they need another addition with Charvarius Ward leaving. Cobee Bryant follows the Renardo Green model of being a physical, press-man corner who excelled at the East-West Shrine Bowl, and that’s underselling it. He has length, physicality, the athleticism and make-up speed to cover a variety of routes, and a nose for the ball. He’s incredibly disruptive and his four interceptions were evidence of his closing speed and ball skills. He's going to be a tough NFL corner.
Round 4, Pick 138: Vernon Broughton, DT, Texas
This is my favorite defensive tackle in the class and frankly, it’s insane he’s being mocked as an undrafted free agent. He’s the total package. He is a stout, physical run defender who can maintain his own gap consistently. He has astoundingly forceful, quick hands to disengage from blocks and to swipe hands down in the pass game. He wreaked havoc on Ohio State in the College Football Playoff, and he’s probably better, and far more consistent (the gap in pad levels is comical) than his explosive defensive tackle teammate, Alfred Collins, who is viewed by some as a second-round talent. Broughton is going to be a player.
Round 4, Pick 139: Kyle Williams, WR, Wazzu
(Alternatives depending on Pick 43: Olafemi Oladejo, EDGE, UCLA OR Barryn Sorrell, EDGE, Texas)
If you are able to take Amos with that second pick, maybe this becomes an edge. Olafemi Oladejo out of UCLA has all the physical tools to develop very nicely, and Barryn Sorrell out of Texas is one of the most underrated all-around EDGEs in this class. Both can set the edge.
But I'm going to assume Deebo Samuel departs on an early designated Post-June 1 cut and that the 49ers need a receiver. So that’s where Kyle Williams comes in. This guy is smooth. He’s an incredibly crafty, intuitive route runner with the short area quickness and after-catch acceleration to do a lot of what was hoped for Jacob Cowing. He might profile more as a slot receiver, but he can likely play Deebo Samuel’s position of Z as well. Oh, and I know. It’s Kyle Williams.
His downside is that he’s got a slight frame at six feet and less than 200 pounds, and might struggle against press. He’s also, again, named Kyle Williams. Just call him Wazzu Kyle or something.
Round 6, Pick 189: Jo’Quavious Marks, RB, USC
Another player who seems greatly undervalued. Marks runs like he’s a third Cook brother. He’s a one cut and go back whose vision and burst allow him to survey for the right time to attack a hole, and cut through it. He’s almost an ideal wide zone back.
He’s not very large at 5-foot-10-inches, but he’s strong enough to deal with contact and bounce off of it. He might be more of a change of pace, but has huge upside this late in the draft. He anchored USC’s offense last year to the tune of 1,133 rushing yards and 9 rushing touchdowns.
Round 7, Pick 228: Jalin Conyers, TE, Texas Tech
Remember how Brayden Willis was supposed to be a Swiss Army knife guy? Conyers might be the real version of that. He threw the ball, ran with it, caught it, and lead blocked for Texas Tech last year. He is a wide, stout tight end with more athleticism than that frame belies.
He might have been the best run blocking tight end in the country last year, or at least the best one worth drafting in this class. He’s got that blocking foundation, and the tape shows plenty of physical upside. It will be interesting to see how he tests, but this is round seven. It could be a Jauan Jennings, tape-over-testing situation this late.
Round 7, Pick 232: Clay Webb, IOL, Jacksonville State
This dude can SCOOT. This is probably way, way too late for him to still be on the board. ESPN has him at 132 overall (but they also have Broughton as the 15th defensive tackle, and previously, the 17th, and Tennessee’s Omar Norman-Lott, a possible second-rounder, as the 17th defensive tackle. I am dubious of their trench evaluations, but not this one).
Webb absolutely fires as a pulling guard, and probably profiles as a center. If the 49ers stick with Jake Brendel (see: Drew Dalman) there is a ton to love about Webb. He can move how the 49ers love their centers to move.
Round 7, Pick 255: Bam Martin-Scott, LB, SCAR
This is a particularly weak linebacker class, but Martin-Scott flashed in the Shrine Bowl. While his enormous pads make him look like a linebacker out of the 90s, he showed pretty solid coverage chops, especially in the receiver-favorable one-on-ones, where he forced an incompletion and an interception. He packs a punch in the box, and he’s absolutely worth adding to the ranks at this price for a linebacker room that needs depth.